US Jobs Data May Fuel Dollar Bounce, Trigger Risk Aversion
- US news-flow trend, leading survey data hint jobs report may top forecast
- Better-than-expected results to boost Fed outlook, drive US Dollar higher
- Australian, Canadian, NZ Dollars may underperform amid risk aversion
The US Employment report headlines the economic calendar in the final hours of the trading week. An increase of 205,000 in nonfarm payrolls is expected in March, marking a slowdown from the 242,000 gain recorded in the prior month. The unemployment rate and the year-on-year rate of average hourly wage growth are expected to remain unchanged at 4.9 and 2.2 percent, respectively.
US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since early February. This hints that analysts may be underestimating the vigor of the world’s largest economy and suggests that the probability of an upside surprise is greater than the alternative. Leading survey data bolsters the case for a firm outcome, pointing to a pickup in job creation in the services and manufacturing sectors last month.
A strong result may help countervail the recent dovish shift in Fed rate hike expectations, pushing the US Dollar higher against its major counterparts after prices probed down to a two-week low yesterday. The possibility of a larger stimulus withdrawal effort than is currently anticipated may likewise weigh against market-wide risk appetite. This may see the sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperform relative to their G10 FX counterparts against the greenback.
Are FXCM traders buying or selling the US Dollar ahead of the jobs report? Find out here !
|22:30||AUD||AiG Perf of Mfg Index (MAR)||58.1||-||53.5|
|23:00||AUD||CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (MAR)||0.2%||-||0.5%|
|23:50||JPY||Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)||2.3%||-||3.1%|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Large Mfg Index (1Q)||6||8||12|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (1Q)||3||7||7|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index (1Q)||22||24||25|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (1Q)||17||20||18|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)||-0.9%||-0.7%||10.8%|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Small Mfg Index (1Q)||-4||-2||0|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (1Q)||-6||-5||-4|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (1Q)||4||4||5|
|23:50||JPY||Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (1Q)||-3||1||0|
|01:00||CNY||Manufacturing PMI (MAR)||50.2||49.4||49.0|
|01:00||CNY||Non-manufacturing PMI (MAR)||53.8||-||52.7|
|01:45||CNY||Caixin China Mfg PMI (MAR)||49.7||48.3||48|
|02:00||JPY||Nikkei Japan Mfg PMI (MAR F)||49.1||-||49.1|
|05:00||JPY||Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)||-3.2%||-||-4.6%|
|05:30||AUD||Commodity Index AUD (MAR)||86.6||-||73.2|
|05:30||AUD||Commodity Index (YoY) (MAR)||-15.4%||-||-22.2%|
|06:00||GBP||Nationwide House Px (MoM) (MAR)||0.4% (A)||0.3%||Low|
|06:00||GBP||Nationwide House Px (YoY) (MAR)||5.1% (A)||4.8%||Low|
|07:15||CHF||Retail Sales Real (YoY) (FEB)||-0.2% (A)||0.2%||Low|
|07:30||CHF||PMI Mfg (MAR)||53.2 (A)||51.6||Medium|
|07:45||EUR||Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (MAR)||53.5 (A)||52.2||Low|
|07:50||EUR||Markit France Mfg PMI (MAR F)||49.6 (A)||49.6||Low|
|07:55||EUR||Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (MAR F)||50.7 (A)||50.4||Medium|
|08:00||EUR||Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (MAR F)||51.6 (A)||51.4||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (MAR)||51.0 (A)||50.8||High|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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