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US Jobs Data May Fuel Dollar Bounce, Trigger Risk Aversion

US Jobs Data May Fuel Dollar Bounce, Trigger Risk Aversion

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US news-flow trend, leading survey data hint jobs report may top forecast
  • Better-than-expected results to boost Fed outlook, drive US Dollar higher
  • Australian, Canadian, NZ Dollars may underperform amid risk aversion

The US Employment report headlines the economic calendar in the final hours of the trading week. An increase of 205,000 in nonfarm payrolls is expected in March, marking a slowdown from the 242,000 gain recorded in the prior month. The unemployment rate and the year-on-year rate of average hourly wage growth are expected to remain unchanged at 4.9 and 2.2 percent, respectively.

US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since early February. This hints that analysts may be underestimating the vigor of the world’s largest economy and suggests that the probability of an upside surprise is greater than the alternative. Leading survey data bolsters the case for a firm outcome, pointing to a pickup in job creation in the services and manufacturing sectors last month.

A strong result may help countervail the recent dovish shift in Fed rate hike expectations, pushing the US Dollar higher against its major counterparts after prices probed down to a two-week low yesterday. The possibility of a larger stimulus withdrawal effort than is currently anticipated may likewise weigh against market-wide risk appetite. This may see the sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperform relative to their G10 FX counterparts against the greenback.

Are FXCM traders buying or selling the US Dollar ahead of the jobs report? Find out here !

Asia Session

22:30AUDAiG Perf of Mfg Index (MAR)58.1-53.5
23:00AUDCoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (MAR)0.2%-0.5%
23:50JPYLoans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)2.3%-3.1%
23:50JPYTankan Large Mfg Index (1Q)6812
23:50JPYTankan Large Mfg Outlook (1Q)377
23:50JPYTankan Large Non-Mfg Index (1Q)222425
23:50JPYTankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (1Q)172018
23:50JPYTankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)-0.9%-0.7%10.8%
23:50JPYTankan Small Mfg Index (1Q)-4-20
23:50JPYTankan Small Mfg Outlook (1Q)-6-5-4
23:50JPYTankan Small Non-Mfg Index (1Q)445
23:50JPYTankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (1Q)-310
01:00CNYManufacturing PMI (MAR)50.249.449.0
01:00CNYNon-manufacturing PMI (MAR)53.8-52.7
01:45CNYCaixin China Mfg PMI (MAR)49.748.348
02:00JPYNikkei Japan Mfg PMI (MAR F) 49.1-49.1
05:00JPYVehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)-3.2%--4.6%
05:30AUDCommodity Index AUD (MAR)86.6-73.2
05:30AUDCommodity Index (YoY) (MAR)-15.4%--22.2%

European Session

06:00GBPNationwide House Px (MoM) (MAR)0.4% (A)0.3%Low
06:00GBPNationwide House Px (YoY) (MAR)5.1% (A)4.8%Low
07:15CHFRetail Sales Real (YoY) (FEB)-0.2% (A)0.2%Low
07:30CHFPMI Mfg (MAR)53.2 (A)51.6Medium
07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (MAR)53.5 (A)52.2Low
07:50EURMarkit France Mfg PMI (MAR F) 49.6 (A)49.6Low
07:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (MAR F) 50.7 (A)50.4Medium
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Mfg PMI (MAR F) 51.6 (A)51.4Medium
08:30GBPMarkit UK PMI Mfg SA (MAR)51.0 (A)50.8High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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