US Jobs Data May Fuel Dollar Bounce, Trigger Risk Aversion

2016-04-01 09:33:00 Ilya Spivak

Talking Points:

US news-flow trend, leading survey data hint jobs report may top forecast
Better-than-expected results to boost Fed outlook, drive US Dollar higher
Australian, Canadian, NZ Dollars may underperform amid risk aversion

The US Employment report headlines the economic calendar in the final hours of the trading week. An increase of 205,000 in nonfarm payrolls is expected in March, marking a slowdown from the 242,000 gain recorded in the prior month. The unemployment rate and the year-on-year rate of average hourly wage growth are expected to remain unchanged at 4.9 and 2.2 percent, respectively.

US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since early February. This hints that analysts may be underestimating the vigor of the world’s largest economy and suggests that the probability of an upside surprise is greater than the alternative. Leading survey data bolsters the case for a firm outcome, pointing to a pickup in job creation in the services and manufacturing sectors last month.

A strong result may help countervail the recent dovish shift in Fed rate hike expectations, pushing the US Dollar higher against its major counterparts after prices probed down to a two-week low yesterday. The possibility of a larger stimulus withdrawal effort than is currently anticipated may likewise weigh against market-wide risk appetite. This may see the sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperform relative to their G10 FX counterparts against the greenback.

Are FXCM traders buying or selling the US Dollar ahead of the jobs report? Find out here !

Asia Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
22:30	AUD	AiG Perf of Mfg Index (MAR)	58.1	-	53.5
23:00	AUD	CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (MAR)	0.2%	-	0.5%
23:50	JPY	Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)	2.3%	-	3.1%
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Mfg Index (1Q)	6	8	12
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (1Q)	3	7	7
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index (1Q)	22	24	25
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (1Q)	17	20	18
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)	-0.9%	-0.7%	10.8%
23:50	JPY	Tankan Small Mfg Index (1Q)	-4	-2	0
23:50	JPY	Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (1Q)	-6	-5	-4
23:50	JPY	Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (1Q)	4	4	5
23:50	JPY	Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (1Q)	-3	1	0
01:00	CNY	Manufacturing PMI (MAR)	50.2	49.4	49.0
01:00	CNY	Non-manufacturing PMI (MAR)	53.8	-	52.7
01:45	CNY	Caixin China Mfg PMI (MAR)	49.7	48.3	48
02:00	JPY	Nikkei Japan Mfg PMI (MAR F)	49.1	-	49.1
05:00	JPY	Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)	-3.2%	-	-4.6%
05:30	AUD	Commodity Index AUD (MAR)	86.6	-	73.2
05:30	AUD	Commodity Index (YoY) (MAR)	-15.4%	-	-22.2%

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP/ACT	PREV	IMPACT
06:00	GBP	Nationwide House Px (MoM) (MAR)	0.4% (A)	0.3%	Low
06:00	GBP	Nationwide House Px (YoY) (MAR)	5.1% (A)	4.8%	Low
07:15	CHF	Retail Sales Real (YoY) (FEB)	-0.2% (A)	0.2%	Low
07:30	CHF	PMI Mfg (MAR)	53.2 (A)	51.6	Medium
07:45	EUR	Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (MAR)	53.5 (A)	52.2	Low
07:50	EUR	Markit France Mfg PMI (MAR F)	49.6 (A)	49.6	Low
07:55	EUR	Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (MAR F)	50.7 (A)	50.4	Medium
08:00	EUR	Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (MAR F)	51.6 (A)	51.4	Medium
08:30	GBP	Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (MAR)	51.0 (A)	50.8	High