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US Jobs Data May Fuel Dollar Bounce, Trigger Risk Aversion

US Jobs Data May Fuel Dollar Bounce, Trigger Risk Aversion

2016-04-01 09:33:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US news-flow trend, leading survey data hint jobs report may top forecast
  • Better-than-expected results to boost Fed outlook, drive US Dollar higher
  • Australian, Canadian, NZ Dollars may underperform amid risk aversion

The US Employment report headlines the economic calendar in the final hours of the trading week. An increase of 205,000 in nonfarm payrolls is expected in March, marking a slowdown from the 242,000 gain recorded in the prior month. The unemployment rate and the year-on-year rate of average hourly wage growth are expected to remain unchanged at 4.9 and 2.2 percent, respectively.

US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since early February. This hints that analysts may be underestimating the vigor of the world’s largest economy and suggests that the probability of an upside surprise is greater than the alternative. Leading survey data bolsters the case for a firm outcome, pointing to a pickup in job creation in the services and manufacturing sectors last month.

A strong result may help countervail the recent dovish shift in Fed rate hike expectations, pushing the US Dollar higher against its major counterparts after prices probed down to a two-week low yesterday. The possibility of a larger stimulus withdrawal effort than is currently anticipated may likewise weigh against market-wide risk appetite. This may see the sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperform relative to their G10 FX counterparts against the greenback.

Are FXCM traders buying or selling the US Dollar ahead of the jobs report? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (MAR)

58.1

-

53.5

23:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (MAR)

0.2%

-

0.5%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)

2.3%

-

3.1%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Index (1Q)

6

8

12

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (1Q)

3

7

7

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index (1Q)

22

24

25

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (1Q)

17

20

18

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)

-0.9%

-0.7%

10.8%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Index (1Q)

-4

-2

0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (1Q)

-6

-5

-4

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (1Q)

4

4

5

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (1Q)

-3

1

0

01:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

50.2

49.4

49.0

01:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (MAR)

53.8

-

52.7

01:45

CNY

Caixin China Mfg PMI (MAR)

49.7

48.3

48

02:00

JPY

Nikkei Japan Mfg PMI (MAR F)

49.1

-

49.1

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-3.2%

-

-4.6%

05:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (MAR)

86.6

-

73.2

05:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (MAR)

-15.4%

-

-22.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (MoM) (MAR)

0.4% (A)

0.3%

Low

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (YoY) (MAR)

5.1% (A)

4.8%

Low

07:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (FEB)

-0.2% (A)

0.2%

Low

07:30

CHF

PMI Mfg (MAR)

53.2 (A)

51.6

Medium

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (MAR)

53.5 (A)

52.2

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (MAR F)

49.6 (A)

49.6

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (MAR F)

50.7 (A)

50.4

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (MAR F)

51.6 (A)

51.4

Medium

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (MAR)

51.0 (A)

50.8

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1163

1.1265

1.1323

1.1367

1.1425

1.1469

1.1571

GBP/USD

1.4171

1.4271

1.4316

1.4371

1.4416

1.4471

1.4571

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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