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  • $SPX holding support, 40m to go until the statement support, prior res $ES $SPY https://t.co/ag2rIYRfPz https://t.co/lFFODhoin4
  • ...I don't believe the markets will ever be okay with the Fed bowing out of stimulus. As market sentiment normalizes, speculative exposure increases proportionally, meaning there will always be a market premium to contend with. A form of the sociological 'normalization' effect
  • Equities pull back from session highs as traders eye the FOMC meeting at the top of the hour $ES $SPX $SPY https://t.co/nI3lIr8xVc
  • ...that is my take on the panic around tapering. I'm not advocating for expediting rate hikes, but to continuously punt easing back on stimulus by even a marginal amount only compounds the market's dependencies - increasing moral hazard.
  • 'The economy and markets are so strong that we can't reduce the $120 billion per month asset purchases. Further, if only we can continue this path for an indefinite future, the market will absorb the external risk on its own.'
  • Also, here is the schedule of FOMC meetings from now through the end of 2022. If the Fed doesn't signal taper today, next scheduled time is Nov 2nd and 'quarterly' event time is Dec 14th. Will taper be easier w/ one or two more high CPI updates? https://t.co/XFrwo24xbD
  • Here is my FOMC scenario table going into the rate decision. While a delay in the taper call seems feasible with the market wobble, there will always be wobbles before and the existential threat of a mkt tantrum. Always a hostage? https://t.co/MIDk28lQBS
  • Gold prices are pushing higher so far this week and the FOMC is waiting in the wings with their September rate decision. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/rVrJnq0Rgh https://t.co/td0i0PTQZz
  • RT @CEOAdam: SO FASCINATING! Dogecoin Poll was by far my highest ever read tweet. In 24 hours, 4.2 million views, my most ever retweets, mo…
  • Just checked the Fed's website to see if they accidently release the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) early by accident - happened once before. Nope, not live yet; but this will be the link when it is: https://t.co/GcANEDVowq
Fed-Speak Back in Focus as US Dollar Digests Drop to 2-Week Low

Fed-Speak Back in Focus as US Dollar Digests Drop to 2-Week Low

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar corrected higher overnight after hitting two-week low vs. majors
  • Euro may look past Eurozone CPI data on limited implication for ECB bets
  • Fed-speak back in focus, Evans and Dudley may talk up rate hike outlook

The US Dollar traded broadly higher against its major counterparts in overnight trade as prices corrected after dropping to a two-week low in yesterday’s session. That move followed comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that traders (rightly or wrongly) perceived as diminishing the scope for interest rate hikes in 2016. The Japanese Yen diverged from its G10 FX counterparts, managing to narrowly gain against the greenback. The currency’s resilience may reflect a steep skew in overnight borrowing costs ahead of Japan’s fiscal year end.

The preliminary set of March Eurozone CPI figures headlines the data docket in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to edge higher to 0.9 percent. If the analogous German figures released yesterday prove telling, an upside surprise could be in store. Such a result seems unlikely to meaningfully buoy the Euro however considering it will hardly discourage the ECB from pursuing the aggressive stimulus effort that policy makers unveiled earlier this month.

The spotlight turns back to Fed-speak later in the day as comments from Chicago and New Fed Presidents Charles Evans and Bill Dudley cross the wires. The tone ought to be familiar, with both officials citing domestic progress toward the central bank’s objectives but warning against potentially disruptive external developments. If this is part of a coordinated communication effort aimed at realigning official and market-based policy bets (as we suspect), the pair may likewise push back a bit against the decidedly dovish interpretations of Yellen’s remarks.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR)

43

-

28

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (MAR)

0

-1

0

00:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

-5.3%

-

0.6%

00:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (MAR)

29.4

-

25.5

00:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (MAR)

3.2

-

7.1

00:30

AUD

Job Vacancies (FEB)

2.7%

-

4.0%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (FEB)

0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (FEB)

6.6%

6.5%

6.5%

02:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB)

7.3%

-

7.6%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (FEB)

7.8%

-2.4%

0.2%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (FEB)

0.974m

0.880m

0.873m

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (FEB)

-12.4%

-

-13.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

-0.1%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

2.2%

-0.8%

Low

07:00

GBP

BOE’s Carney Speaks at FSB Briefing

-

-

Medium

07:00

EUR

IMF's Lagarde, PBOC's Zhou Speak in Paris

-

-

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (000's) (MAR)

-6k

-10k

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (MAR)

6.2%

6.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (FEB)

1.3b

1.6b

Low

08:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB)

3.6b

3.7b

Low

08:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (FEB)

73.5k

74.6k

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB)

-

0.0%

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB)

-

0.8%

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB)

4.0%

4.3%

Low

08:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.5%

0.5%

Medium

08:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (4Q F)

1.9%

1.9%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Current Account Balance (4Q)

-21.2b

-17.5b

Low

08:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (JAN)

0.2%

0.2%

Low

08:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (JAN)

0.8%

0.7%

Low

08:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q F)

-

-2.1%

Low

08:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q F)

-

2.4%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAR)

-0.1%

-0.2%

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (MAR A)

0.9%

0.8%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1167

1.1248

1.1293

1.1329

1.1374

1.1410

1.1491

GBP/USD

1.4204

1.4302

1.4340

1.4400

1.4438

1.4498

1.4596

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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