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US Dollar May Rise as Fed Commentary Boosts Rate Hike Outlook

US Dollar May Rise as Fed Commentary Boosts Rate Hike Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Quiet European data docket puts the spotlight on Fed commentary
  • US Dollar may rise as Williams, Yellen boost rate hike speculation
  • NZ Dollar outperformed in Asia after demand rose at bill auction

Comments from Federal Reserve officials are in the spotlight as the spectrum of global financial markets return from Easter holiday closures. Remarks from San Francisco Fed President John Williams are first to cross the wires, followed by a much-anticipated speech from Chair Janet Yellen.

We’ve argued that Fed policymakers’ tone following the March FOMC meeting has been aimed at realigning official and market-based policy bets to set the stage for a smooth rate hike in June. Rhetoric stressing domestic progress toward the central bank’s unemployment and inflation objectives while blaming external forces for the pause in the normalization cycle would amount to more of the same. This may boost priced-in tightening expectations, encouraging the US Dollar higher.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The move higher tracked local bond prices following an auction of 3-, 6-, and 12-month bills to suggest a pickup in demand for NZD-denominated paper. Indeed, bid-to-cover ratios reflected better uptake this time around versus the latest time similar-maturity debt was on offer two weeks ago.

Are markets matching DailyFX analysts’ expectations so far in 2016? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (FEB)

3.3%

3.2%

3.2%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (FEB)

1.28

1.29

1.28

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (FEB)

1.2%

-1.9%

-3.1%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (FEB)

0.5%

1.6%

-0.2%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

-2.3%

-0.9%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (FEB)

2.2%

1.6%

0.9%

05:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (MAR)

48.8

49.0

47.9

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (MAR 25)

-

482.5b

Low

-

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (MAR 25)

-

418.4b

Low

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB)

5.0%

5.0%

Medium

09:15

USD

Fed's Williams Speaks in Singapore

-

-

Medium

10:00

GBP

BOE's FPC Publishes Statement

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1056

1.1123

1.1159

1.1190

1.1226

1.1257

1.1324

GBP/USD

1.3895

1.4057

1.4156

1.4219

1.4318

1.4381

1.4543

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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