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US Dollar May Rise Alongside Yen as Aussie Falls on FOMC Jitters

US Dollar May Rise Alongside Yen as Aussie Falls on FOMC Jitters

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen gains, commodity-bloc FX weakens as risk aversion sweeps Asia markets
  • Sentiment slump likely reflects pre-FOMC jitters, status-quo BOJ rates stance
  • Upside surprises on US Retail Sales, PPI figures may amplify risk-off mood

Financial markets’ mood soured in overnight trade, with the sentiment-sensitive Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars dropping alongside stock prices while the anti-risk Japanese Yen advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell nearly 1 percent in a move that appeared to reflect pre-positioning ahead of this week’s FOMC policy announcement.

We noted yesterday that risk-off momentum may emerge as traders weigh the possibility that the central bank will opt for hawkish rhetoric paving the way for a more aggressive 2016 rate hike path than investors currency envision. Selling pressure was compounded by the Bank of Japan, which opted not to pursue further stimulus expansion after unexpectedly introducing a negative-rate regime in January.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see markets looking ahead to US news-flow for direction cues. February’s Retail Sales and PPI figures are due to cross the wires. Receipts are expected to fall 0.1 percent from the prior month while the core wholesale inflation rate is seen rising to 1.2 percent, the highest in 13 months.

Realized outcomes on US data releases have notably improved relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks, hinting that analysts are underestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for upside surprises. The pick-up in data has been mirrored in rebuilding 2016 rate hike bets and more of the same may sharpen pre-FOMC jitters and fuel amplify risk aversion while boosting the US Dollar.

Have markets matched DailyFX expectations so far in 2016? See our forecast to find out!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index

116.4

-

114.8

00:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (FEB)

-0.1%

-

0.4%

00:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)

2.3%

-

5.2%

00:30

AUD

RBA March Meeting Minutes

-

-

03:35

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

¥80t

¥80t

¥80t

03:35

JPY

BOJ Basic Balance Rate

0.10%

-

0.10%

03:35

JPY

BOJ Macro Add-On Balance Rate

0.00%

-

0.00%

03:35

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

-0.10%

-0.10%

-0.10%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)

3.7%

-

3.7%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)

-3.8%

-

-3.8%

04:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN)

2.6%

-

-1.0%

04:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)

1.5%

0.3%

-0.6%

06:30

JPY

BOJ’s Kuroda Holds Press Conference

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

10:00

EUR

Employment (QoQ) (4Q)

-

0.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Employment (YoY) (4Q)

-

1.1%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0889

1.1019

1.1087

1.1149

1.1217

1.1279

1.1409

GBP/USD

1.3994

1.4176

1.4279

1.4358

1.4461

1.454

1.4722

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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