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US Dollar Rebounds from 3-Week Low, Commodity FX Underperforms

US Dollar Rebounds from 3-Week Low, Commodity FX Underperforms

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Commodity currencies underperform as US Dollar bounces in Asian trade
  • S&P 500 futures hint at corrective risk-off mood to start the trading week
  • Fed-speak may offer clues about tone of upcoming FOMC announcement

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade as the US Dollar staged a broad-based recovery after hitting a three-week low. The three commodity bloc currencies were the best performers against the greenback on Friday, which may help to explain outsized losses as the US currency retraces.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours may keep corrective capital flows in the driver’s seat. Indeed, S&P 500 futures are pointing lower, hinting at a risk-off mood ahead. Follow-through may prove limited however, with moves amounting to little more than digestion ahead of high-profile event risk – notably, the ECB rate decision – on tap in the days ahead.

Fed-speak may likewise prove noteworthy, with comments from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Governor Lael Brainard due to cross the wires. Traders will want to hear whether recent improvements in US news-flow have rekindled policymakers’ confidence in stimulus withdrawal, offering a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting. While a rate looks unlikely, the tone of the policy statement and the updated tightening path projection are likely to be pivotal for the greenback and the markets at large.

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Asia Session

22:30AUDAiG Perf of Construction Index (FEB)46.1-46.3
23:50JPYOfficial Reserve Assets (FEB) $1254.1b-1248.1b
00:30AUDANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB)-1.2%-0.9%
03:40JPYBOJ’s Kuroda Speaks in Tokyo ---
05:00JPYLeading Index (JAN P) 101.4101.6101.8
05:00JPYCoincident Index (JAN P) 113.8113.8110.9
05:30AUDForeign Reserves (A$) (FEB)-61.6B

European Session

07:00EURGerman Factory Orders (MoM) (JAN)-0.3%-0.7%Medium
07:00EURGerman Factory Orders (YoY) (JAN)0.0%-2.7%Medium
08:00CHFForeign Currency Reserves (FEB)-575.4BLow
08:00CHFTotal Sight Deposits (MAR 4)-477.6BLow
08:00CHFDomestic Sight Deposits (MAR 4)-418.1BLow
09:30EUREurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR)8.36.0Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.