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Euro May Fall Further as Soft CPI Hints More ECB Easing Ahead

Euro May Fall Further as Soft CPI Hints More ECB Easing Ahead

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar falls as data drives rate cut bets, Yen gains as S&P 500 futures fall
  • Euro downturn may continue as soft inflation data beckons more ECB easing
  • Global stimulus expansion hopes may offer support to risk sentiment trends

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed to start the trading week after a string of disappointing data releases fueled RBNZ rate cut speculation. A measure of business confidence from ANZ Bank fell by the most since October. A separate report showed Building Permits fell 8.2 percent, making for the biggest drawdown since September 2014. The Kiwi fell alongside New Zealand bond yields, suggesting the soft results spurred easing bets. Meanwhile, the Yen is trading higher as S&P 500 futures open lower, hinting at a risk-off mood inspiring liquidation of carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding Japanese unit.

Looking ahead, the preliminary set of February’s Eurozone CPI figures is in focus. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to decline to 0.9 percent from the 1.0 percent recorded in January. Last week’s analogous report from Germany – the currency bloc’s largest economy – proved disappointing relative to consensus forecasts. A similar result on the region-wide metric may boost bets on ECB stimulus expansion at next month’s policy meeting, weighing on the Euro.The prospect of an increase in global accommodation my help risk appetite however,offering support to sentiment-linked FX including the Australian Dollar.

What are DailyFX analysts' top trade ideas for 2016? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)

25.5

-

34.4

21:30

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)

7.1

-

23.0

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

-8.2%

-

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)

3.7%

3.2%

-1.7%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)

-3.8%

-3.8%

-1.9%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)

-0.1%

0.1%

-1.1%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

-1.1%

0.1%

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (JAN)

1.0%

-0.2%

0.0%

00:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (FEB)

-0.2%

-

0.4%

00:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (FEB)

2.1%

-

2.3%

00:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB)

28

-

45

00:30

AUD

Inventories SA (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

00:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q)

-2.8%

-1.8%

1.4%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)

6.5%

6.5%

6.6%

02:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)

7.6%

-

8.1%

04:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)

-5.8%

-

-2.3%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)

0.2%

-0.3%

-1.3%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)

0.873M

0.870M

0.860M

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)

-13.8%

-

14.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

-1.0%

-1.2%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

-3.4%

-3.1%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

0.3%

0.6%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)

1.8%

1.5%

Low

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (FEB)

99.3

100.3

Low

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (FEB 26)

-

476.2B

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (FEB 26)

-

411.6B

Low

09:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (JAN)

1.4B

1.2B

Medium

09:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN)

3.7B

3.2B

Low

09:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (JAN)

74.0K

70.8K

Medium

09:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN)

-

-0.2%

Low

09:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)

-

0.2%

Low

09:30

GBP

M4 Ex. IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN)

-

4.0%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (FEB)

0.0%

0.3%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (FEB A)

0.9%

1.0%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0659

1.0815

1.0875

1.0971

1.1031

1.1127

1.1283

GBP/USD

1.3545

1.3734

1.3802

1.3923

1.3991

1.4112

1.4301

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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