Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Euro, British Pound May Overlook Revised CPI and GDP Data

Euro, British Pound May Overlook Revised CPI and GDP Data

Talking Points:

A revised set of fourth-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The release is expected to show output grew 0.5 percent in the final three months of 2015, confirming flash estimates. Absent a sharp deviation from forecasts, the release seems unlikely to inspire a strong reaction from the British Pound.

The monetary policy outlook looks to be at a standstill. Speaking in testimony to Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee earlier this week, BOE Governor Mark Carney said a rate hike is still likely to be officials’ next move but broadened the timeline for “liftoff” to sometime in the next three years. Simply put, this suggests the MPC has no intention of going anywhere fast at this point, robbing the GDP print of market-moving potential.

The final revision of January’s Eurozone CPI print is also on tap. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 1 percent, as previously reported. A downside surprise may stoke speculation about ECB stimulus expansion at next month’s policy meeting and weigh on the Euro. Needless to say, an unexpectedly upbeat result stands to produce the opposite effect. Follow-through may prove limited however as traders look ahead to tomorrow’s release of February’stimelier German CPI data.

On the Fed-speak front, comments from Atlanta and San Francisco Fed Presidents Dennis Lockhart and John Williams are due to cross the wires. Both policymakers were members of the 2015 FOMC that voted for December’s interest rate hike and projected 100 basis points in further tightening in 2016. It may be telling to see if their outlook has survived recent volatility, and why. Richmond Fed President Jeff Lacker, another voter on the 2015 FOMC, said yesterday that while it is too soon to judge the impact of this year’s risk aversion, his world view has not been materially altered.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, dropping after the release of the fourth-quarter Private Capital Expenditure report. The Australian Bureau of Statistics projected that capex will rise by A$123.96 billion in the 2015-16 period, a drop of 17.8 percent compared with the prior year. The 2016-17 stretch is expected to see a further 19.5 percent decline, yielding expenditures of A$82.57 billion. Markets interpreted the data to hint that slowing activity will spur the RBA to cut rates, with the Aussie falling alongside front-end bond yields.

How does recent volatility fit into the DailyFX outlook for 2016? Find out here !

Asia Session

21:45NZDNet Migration SA (JAN)6130-5570
00:00USDFed's James Bullard Speaks in New York City ---
00:30AUDPrivate Capital Expenditure (4Q)0.8%-3.0%-8.4%
01:30JPYBOJ Kiuchi Speaks in Kagoshima ---

European Session

07:00EURGfK Consumer Confidence (MAR)9.39.4Low
08:15CHFIndustrial Output w.d.a (YoY) (4Q)--2.8%Low
08:15CHFIndustry & Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) (4Q)--3.1%Low
09:00EUREurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)4.7%4.7%Low
09:30GBPGDP (QoQ) (4Q P)0.5%0.5%Medium
09:30GBPGDP (YoY) (4Q P)1.9%1.9%Medium
09:30GBPPrivate Consumption (QoQ) (4Q P)0.8%0.9%Low
09:30GBPGovernment Spending (QoQ) (4Q P)0.2%0.6%Low
09:30GBPGross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (4Q P)1.0%0.7%Low
09:30GBPExports (QoQ) (4Q P)0.4%-0.3%Low
09:30GBPImports (QoQ) (4Q P)1.3%2.7%Low
09:30GBPIndex of Services (MoM) (DEC)0.3%0.2%Low
09:30GBPIndex of Services (3M/3M) (DEC)0.7%0.6%Low
09:30GBPTotal Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q P)0.9%2.2%Low
09:30GBPTotal Business Investment (YoY) (4Q P)6.4%5.8%Low
10:00EUREurozone CPI (MoM) (JAN)-1.4%0.0%Medium
10:00EUREurozone CPI (YoY) (JAN F)0.4%0.2%Medium
10:00EUREurozone CPI Core (YoY) (JAN F)1.00%1.0%Medium
10:00CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JAN)-0.5%-0.2%Low
10:00CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JAN)-1.3%-1.4%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.