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US Dollar Looks to PMI Data, Fed-Speak for Rates Policy Clues

US Dollar Looks to PMI Data, Fed-Speak for Rates Policy Clues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen gains, Aussie and NZ Dollars fall as Asian stocks follow Wall St. lower
  • British Pound drops below 1.40 vs. US Dollar for the first time since 2009
  • US Dollar looks for rates policy clues in PMI data, Fed’s Lacker comments

Risk aversion returned in Asian trade, with regional shares following Wall Street lower and reverberating into G10 FX performance. The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed upward while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars faced selling pressure.

The British Pound also declined as dovish policy bets compoundedBrexit worries after BOE Governor Carney sounded a cautious tone in testimony to Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee yesterday. The central bank chief said he expects to be raising rates at some point within the next three years, which sounds far less urgent than previous comments hinting at “liftoff” in 2016.

Looking ahead, February’s preliminary US Services and Composite PMI reports are in focus. The surveys’ internals are likely to be more interesting than the headline figures, with measures of price growth at the forefront. January’s reports foreshadowed better-than-expected official CPI readings.

More of the same this time around may help set the stage for PCE data due on Friday and wage growth numbers embedded in next week’s Employment report. Upbeat outcomes may help resurrect 2016 Fed rate hike speculation, which is likely to boost the US Dollar but could trigger another aggressive risk-off push.

Scheduled comments from Richmond Fed President Jeff Lacker may also prove noteworthy. Lacker was the most hawkish member of the 2015 committee, pushing for a rate hike far sooner than the eventual move in December. It could be telling to see if his optimism has survived recent volatility, and why.

What are DailyFX analysts’ top trade ideas for 2016? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (JAN)

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

00:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JAN)

0.4%

-

1.0%

00:30

AUD

Wage Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

00:30

AUD

Wage Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

2.2%

2.3%

2.3%

00:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (4Q)

-3.6%

-2.0%

-1.8%

01:30

USD

Fed's Fischer Speaks on Monetary Policy

-

-

-

01:45

CNH

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (FEB)

111.3

-

114.9

05:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (FEB)

47.9

47.1

47.2

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (DEC F)

102.1

-

102.0

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (DEC F)

110.9

-

111.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (JAN)

-

1.62

Low

09:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (JAN)

44800

43975

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (FEB)

12

16

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0895

1.0958

1.0989

1.1021

1.1052

1.1084

1.1147

GBP/USD

1.3766

1.3914

1.3968

1.4062

1.4116

1.4210

1.4358

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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