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Market Sentiment Unfazed as British Pound Drops on Brexit Fears

Market Sentiment Unfazed as British Pound Drops on Brexit Fears

2016-02-22 04:49:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound drops after London Mayor Boris Johnson backs “Brexit”
  • Yen declines, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars rise as risk appetite firms in Asia
  • Soft Eurozone PMI data may punish Euro, amplify rebound in sentiment

The British Pound slumped at the start of the trading week after London Mayor Boris Johnson said he would campaign for the UK to leave the EU ahead of a referendum on membership in the regional bloc set for June 23. A recent poll showed Johnson is second only to Prime Minister David Cameron in influencing likely voters.

The threat of political instability in the UK did not spill over into broader risk aversion however. In fact, sentiment firmed across Asian bourses, with the Australian and New Zealand Dollars following shares upward while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined.

Looking ahead, S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher to hint that the risk-on mood is set to continue. The preliminary set of February’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the data docket. The region-wide composite gauge is expected to show a slowdown in manufacturing- and service-sector growth.

News-flow from the common currency area has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks. This opens the door for a downside surprise, which may amplify speculation on an expansion of ECB stimulus measures to be announced after next month’s policy meeting.

The prospect of a larger-scale easing effort is likely to weigh on the Euro. An increase in global monetary accommodation may also reinforce the recovery in sentiment, compounding pressure on the Yen while offering added support to commodity-bloc FX.

Are FXCM traders buying or selling the US Dollar vs. major currencies? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:10

AUD

RBA's Debelle Speech in Sydney

-

-

-

01:45

CNH

MNI February Business Indicator

49.9

52.3

02:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (JAN)

2.3%

-

-0.8%

02:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JAN)

8.9%

-

7.4%

02:00

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (FEB P)

50.2

52.0

52.3

05:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (JAN)

-

0.0%

07:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

-

1.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:00

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (FEB P)

49.9

50.0

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (FEB P)

50.3

50.3

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (FEB P)

50.3

50.2

Medium

08:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)

-

1.6%

Low

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (FEB 19)

-

473.4B

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (FEB 19)

-

409.2B

Low

08:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JAN)

-0.3%

-0.4%

Low

08:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JAN)

-5.2%

-5.5%

Low

08:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (FEB P)

51.9

52.3

Medium

08:30

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (FEB P)

54.7

55.0

Medium

08:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (FEB P)

54.1

54.5

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (FEB P)

52.0

52.3

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (FEB P)

53.4

53.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (FEB P)

53.3

53.6

Medium

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (FEB)

-12

-15

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB)

0

1

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0968

1.1040

1.1085

1.1112

1.1157

1.1184

1.1256

GBP/USD

1.4030

1.4192

1.4299

1.4354

1.4461

1.4516

1.4678

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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