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US Dollar, Yen May Rise as CPI Data Clashes with Dovish Fed View

US Dollar, Yen May Rise as CPI Data Clashes with Dovish Fed View

Talking Points:

  • Aussie, NZ Dollars drop as Yen gains amid risk aversion in Asian hours
  • Upside surprise on core US CPI may boost US Dollar, fuel risk-off trade
  • British Pound may rise on UK membership compromise at EU summit

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars faced selling pressure while the anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen traded higher in overnight trade against a backdrop of weakness on regional stock exchanges. The MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark equity index fell 0.5 percent, with shares tracking a drop in crude oil prices.

January’s US CPI figures headline the economic data docket through the end of the trading week. Leading survey data paints a relatively upbeat picture of price growth trends. Service-sector inflation – while still tepid – firmed for a fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, manufacturing sector output prices grew at the fastest pace since August 2015.

This may translate into an uptickon the core year-on-year inflation rate, which analysts expect to print unchanged from the prior monthat 2.1 percent. Such a result would clash with the sharp dovish turn in Fed policy bets since the beginning of the year. Indeed, Fed Funds futures hint traders no longer expect further rate hikes until 2017.

Data suggesting otherwise is likely to broadly boost the US Dollar against its major counterparts. The returning possibility of near-term stimulus withdrawal may likewise undermine risk appetite, sending commodity-bloc FX lower alongside stock prices while boosting funding currencies.

Commentary from the final day of the EU leaders’ summit may likewise elicit a response asset prices. A renegotiation of UK membership terms paving the way for an in/out referendum on the country’s place within the common market is in focus.

On balance, UK Prime Minister David Cameron and his EU counterparts seem equally keen on maintaining the status quo, preferring not to erect hurdles degrading deep trade ties across the English Channel. If this produces a compromise that would allow Mr Cameron to throw the weight of his administration behind the campaign to stay in the EU ahead of the referendum, ebbing uncertainty risk is likely to boost the British Pound.

Has the US Dollar matched DailyFX analysts’ bets so far in 2016? See our Q1 forecast to find out!

Asia Session

04:00JPYNationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (JAN)-1.9%-0.1%
04:30JPYAll Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)-0.9%-0.3%-1.1%
05:30JPYTokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN) 0.2%-2.2%

European Session

07:00EURGerman PPI (MoM) (JAN)-0.3%-0.5%Medium
07:00EURGerman PPI (YoY) (JAN)-2.0%-2.3%Medium
09:30GBPRetail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (JAN)0.7%-0.9%Medium
09:30GBPRetail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (JAN)3.4%2.1%Medium
09:30GBPRetail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (JAN)0.8%-1.0%Medium
09:30GBPRetail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (JAN)3.6%2.6%Medium
09:30GBPPublic Finances (PSNCR) (JAN)-8.1BLow
09:30GBPCentral Government NCR (JAN)-20.5BLow
09:30GBPPublic Sector Net Borrowing (JAN)-13.9B6.9BLow
09:30GBPPSNB ex Banking Groups (JAN)-12.3B7.5BLow

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.