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US Dollar, Yen May Rise as CPI Data Clashes with Dovish Fed View

US Dollar, Yen May Rise as CPI Data Clashes with Dovish Fed View

2016-02-19 05:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Aussie, NZ Dollars drop as Yen gains amid risk aversion in Asian hours
  • Upside surprise on core US CPI may boost US Dollar, fuel risk-off trade
  • British Pound may rise on UK membership compromise at EU summit

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars faced selling pressure while the anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen traded higher in overnight trade against a backdrop of weakness on regional stock exchanges. The MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark equity index fell 0.5 percent, with shares tracking a drop in crude oil prices.

January’s US CPI figures headline the economic data docket through the end of the trading week. Leading survey data paints a relatively upbeat picture of price growth trends. Service-sector inflation – while still tepid – firmed for a fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, manufacturing sector output prices grew at the fastest pace since August 2015.

This may translate into an uptickon the core year-on-year inflation rate, which analysts expect to print unchanged from the prior monthat 2.1 percent. Such a result would clash with the sharp dovish turn in Fed policy bets since the beginning of the year. Indeed, Fed Funds futures hint traders no longer expect further rate hikes until 2017.

Data suggesting otherwise is likely to broadly boost the US Dollar against its major counterparts. The returning possibility of near-term stimulus withdrawal may likewise undermine risk appetite, sending commodity-bloc FX lower alongside stock prices while boosting funding currencies.

Commentary from the final day of the EU leaders’ summit may likewise elicit a response asset prices. A renegotiation of UK membership terms paving the way for an in/out referendum on the country’s place within the common market is in focus.

On balance, UK Prime Minister David Cameron and his EU counterparts seem equally keen on maintaining the status quo, preferring not to erect hurdles degrading deep trade ties across the English Channel. If this produces a compromise that would allow Mr Cameron to throw the weight of his administration behind the campaign to stay in the EU ahead of the referendum, ebbing uncertainty risk is likely to boost the British Pound.

Has the US Dollar matched DailyFX analysts’ bets so far in 2016? See our Q1 forecast to find out!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

04:00

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (JAN)

-1.9%

-

0.1%

04:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)

-0.9%

-0.3%

-1.1%

05:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

0.2%

-

2.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (JAN)

-0.3%

-0.5%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (JAN)

-2.0%

-2.3%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (JAN)

0.7%

-0.9%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (JAN)

3.4%

2.1%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (JAN)

0.8%

-1.0%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (JAN)

3.6%

2.6%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (JAN)

-

8.1B

Low

09:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (JAN)

-

20.5B

Low

09:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (JAN)

-13.9B

6.9B

Low

09:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (JAN)

-12.3B

7.5B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0951

1.1030

1.1069

1.1109

1.1148

1.1188

1.1267

GBP/USD

1.4055

1.4192

1.4265

1.4329

1.4402

1.4466

1.4603

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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