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Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Retreats in BOE, NFP Pregame

Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Retreats in BOE, NFP Pregame

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar declines, Yen gains as Asia follows Wall Street risk-off lead
  • Sentiment may firm if UK, US news-flow bolster dovish Fed and BOE bets
  • Pre-positioning for BOE rate decision, NFP data may boost risk appetite

The return of risk aversion carried over from US hours and into Asian trade. The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars are underperforming, with prices tracking steep declines across regional stock exchanges. The anti-risk Japanese Yen is trading broadly higher.

The New Zealand Dollar has managed to diverge, registering modest gains following a better-than-expected set of fourth-quarter employment figures. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a seven-year low of 5.3 percent. The Kiwi rose alongside front-end bond yields, hinting the upbeat data release weighed against RBNZ rate cut speculation.

Looking ahead, UK PMI figures and the US ADP employment report are in focus. Both releases are likely to be analyzed through the prism of monetary policy expectations ahead of the BOE rate decision on Thursday and the official set of US jobs figures on Friday. Soft results that fuel hopes for delayed stimulus withdrawal are likely to boost risk appetite, trimming losses in commodity FX and capping Yen gains. Alternatively, upbeat numbers may amplify risk-off momentum.

Portfolio readjustment may be another potent catalyst for a recovery in risk appetite. Traders are unlikely to want to carry aggressive directional exposure into high-profile event risk in the final 48 hours of the trading week. This means that a move to rebalance toward neutral after yesterday’s aggressive risk-off push pay fuel a rebound in sentiment-geared assets.

DailyFX analysts expected the selloff in early 2016. See our forecasts to find out what is likely next!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate (4Q)

5.3%

6.1%

6.0%

21:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) (4Q)

0.9%

0.8%

-0.5%

21:45

NZD

Employment Change (YoY) (4Q)

1.3%

1.1%

1.5%

21:45

NZD

Participation Rate (4Q)

68.4%

68.9%

68.7%

21:45

NZD

Pvt Wages Ex Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)

0.4%

0.5%

0.4%

21:45

NZD

Pvt Wages Inc Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)

0.4%

0.5%

0.4%

21:45

NZD

Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (4Q)

0.2%

0.5%

0.9%

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Services Index (JAN)

48.4

-

46.3

00:00

NZD

RBNZ’s Wheeler Speaks in Christchurch

-

-

-

00:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

-1.8%

-

-2.0%

00:30

AUD

Trade Balance (DEC)

-3535m

-2450m

-2727m

00:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC)

9.2%

4.5%

-12.4%

00:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC)

-2.5%

-7.2%

-7.6%

01:45

CNH

Caixin China PMI Services (JAN)

52.4

-

50.2

01:45

CNH

Caixin China PMI Composite (JAN)

50.1

-

49.4

02:00

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Services (JAN)

52.4

-

51.5

02:00

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (JAN)

52.6

-

52.2

02:30

JPY

BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo

-

-

-

05:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (JAN)

42.5

42.5

42.7

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (JAN)

-

56.0

Low

08:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (JAN)

54.0

55.3

Low

08:50

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (JAN F)

50.6

50.6

Low

08:50

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (JAN F)

50.5

50.5

Low

08:55

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (JAN F)

55.4

55.4

Medium

08:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JAN F)

54.5

54.5

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JAN F)

53.6

53.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JAN F)

53.5

53.5

Medium

09:30

GBP

Official Reserves Changes ($) (JAN)

-

527m

Low

09:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (JAN)

55.4

55.5

Medium

09:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (JAN)

55.0

55.3

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

0.3%

-0.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)

1.5%

1.4%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0807

1.0861

1.0890

1.0915

1.0944

1.0969

1.1023

GBP/USD

1.4156

1.4275

1.4343

1.4394

1.4462

1.4513

1.4632

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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