Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Retreats in BOE, NFP Pregame
- Aussie Dollar declines, Yen gains as Asia follows Wall Street risk-off lead
- Sentiment may firm if UK, US news-flow bolster dovish Fed and BOE bets
- Pre-positioning for BOE rate decision, NFP data may boost risk appetite
The return of risk aversion carried over from US hours and into Asian trade. The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars are underperforming, with prices tracking steep declines across regional stock exchanges. The anti-risk Japanese Yen is trading broadly higher.
The New Zealand Dollar has managed to diverge, registering modest gains following a better-than-expected set of fourth-quarter employment figures. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a seven-year low of 5.3 percent. The Kiwi rose alongside front-end bond yields, hinting the upbeat data release weighed against RBNZ rate cut speculation.
Looking ahead, UK PMI figures and the US ADP employment report are in focus. Both releases are likely to be analyzed through the prism of monetary policy expectations ahead of the BOE rate decision on Thursday and the official set of US jobs figures on Friday. Soft results that fuel hopes for delayed stimulus withdrawal are likely to boost risk appetite, trimming losses in commodity FX and capping Yen gains. Alternatively, upbeat numbers may amplify risk-off momentum.
Portfolio readjustment may be another potent catalyst for a recovery in risk appetite. Traders are unlikely to want to carry aggressive directional exposure into high-profile event risk in the final 48 hours of the trading week. This means that a move to rebalance toward neutral after yesterday’s aggressive risk-off push pay fuel a rebound in sentiment-geared assets.
DailyFX analysts expected the selloff in early 2016. See our forecasts to find out what is likely next!
|21:45||NZD||Unemployment Rate (4Q)||5.3%||6.1%||6.0%|
|21:45||NZD||Employment Change (QoQ) (4Q)||0.9%||0.8%||-0.5%|
|21:45||NZD||Employment Change (YoY) (4Q)||1.3%||1.1%||1.5%|
|21:45||NZD||Participation Rate (4Q)||68.4%||68.9%||68.7%|
|21:45||NZD||Pvt Wages Ex Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)||0.4%||0.5%||0.4%|
|21:45||NZD||Pvt Wages Inc Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)||0.4%||0.5%||0.4%|
|21:45||NZD||Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (4Q)||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|22:30||AUD||AiG Perf of Services Index (JAN)||48.4||-||46.3|
|00:00||NZD||RBNZ’s Wheeler Speaks in Christchurch||-||-||-|
|00:01||GBP||BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JAN)||-1.8%||-||-2.0%|
|00:30||AUD||Trade Balance (DEC)||-3535m||-2450m||-2727m|
|00:30||AUD||Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC)||9.2%||4.5%||-12.4%|
|00:30||AUD||Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC)||-2.5%||-7.2%||-7.6%|
|01:45||CNH||Caixin China PMI Services (JAN)||52.4||-||50.2|
|01:45||CNH||Caixin China PMI Composite (JAN)||50.1||-||49.4|
|02:00||JPY||Nikkei Japan PMI Services (JAN)||52.4||-||51.5|
|02:00||JPY||Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (JAN)||52.6||-||52.2|
|02:30||JPY||BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo||-||-||-|
|05:00||JPY||Consumer Confidence Index (JAN)||42.5||42.5||42.7|
|08:45||EUR||Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (JAN)||-||56.0||Low|
|08:45||EUR||Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (JAN)||54.0||55.3||Low|
|08:50||EUR||Markit France Services PMI (JAN F)||50.6||50.6||Low|
|08:50||EUR||Markit France Composite PMI (JAN F)||50.5||50.5||Low|
|08:55||EUR||Markit Germany Services PMI (JAN F)||55.4||55.4||Medium|
|08:55||EUR||Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JAN F)||54.5||54.5||Medium|
|09:00||EUR||Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JAN F)||53.6||53.6||Medium|
|09:00||EUR||Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JAN F)||53.5||53.5||Medium|
|09:30||GBP||Official Reserves Changes ($) (JAN)||-||527m||Low|
|09:30||GBP||Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (JAN)||55.4||55.5||Medium|
|09:30||GBP||Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (JAN)||55.0||55.3||Medium|
|10:00||EUR||Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)||0.3%||-0.3%||Low|
|10:00||EUR||Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)||1.5%||1.4%||Low|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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