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Markets Cheer BOJ Easing But US GDP Data May Cool Optimism

Markets Cheer BOJ Easing But US GDP Data May Cool Optimism

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen drops as Bank of Japan shocks markets with negative rate policy
  • Australian, NZ Dollars follow stocks higher on firming risk appetite
  • US Dollar may rise as sentiment sours if US GDP data outperforms

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduced negative interest rates into its monetary policy framework. Policymakers adopted a three-tier system akin to that of Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark: a portion of deposits at the BOJ will earn interest of 0.1 percent, the next layer will earn 0.0 percent, and the final component will be subject to a rate of -0.1 percent.

The expansion of monetary stimulus helped boost risk appetite, sending the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars higher alongside Asian stock prices. S&P 500 futures registered a similar response and continue to point higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting that the upbeat mood is poised to carry through into the week-end.

The release of fourth-quarter US GDP figures threatens risk-on follow-through however. Output is seen growing at an annualized pace of 0.8 percent, a marked downtick from the 2.0 percent recorded in the three months through September 2015.

A soft print may pass with relatively little fanfare considering the already significant downgrade of Fed rate hike bets in recent weeks. An upside surprise that clashes with the priced-in status quo is likely to produce a more pronounced response, forcing portfolio readjustment that undermines risk appetite and boosts the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (DEC)

2.3%

-

2.4%

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (DEC)

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (DEC)

1.27

1.26

1.25

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (DEC)

-4.4%

-2.5%

-2.9%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (DEC)

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (DEC)

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (DEC)

0.8%

0.9%

0.9%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JAN)

-0.3%

0.0%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)

-0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)

0.4%

0.6%

0.6%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC P)

-1.4%

-0.3%

-0.9%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC P)

-1.6%

-0.6%

1.7%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (DEC)

2.6%

-

2.7%

00:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (JAN)

45

-

45

00:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (JAN)

4

1

2

00:30

AUD

PPI (QoQ) (4Q)

0.3%

-

0.9%

00:30

AUD

PPI (YoY) (4Q)

1.9%

-

1.7%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (DEC)

0.5%

0.6%

0.4%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (DEC)

6.6%

6.7%

6.6%

02:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC)

8.1%

-

8.4%

03:38

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

¥80T

¥80T

¥80T

03:38

JPY

BOJ Basic Balance

0.1%

-

03:38

JPY

BOJ Macro Add-on Balance

0.0%

-

03:38

JPY

BOJ Policy-Rate Balance

-0.1%

-

-

04:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (DEC)

-2.3%

-

6.1%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (DEC)

-1.3%

0.5%

1.7%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (DEC)

0.860M

0.888M

0.886M

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (DEC)

14.8%

-

5.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:30

CHF

SNB 4Q 2015 Currency Allocation

-

-

Medium

06:30

JPY

BOJ’s Kuroda Gives Press Conference

-

-

High

06:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) (4Q A)

0.2% (A)

0.3%

Low

06:30

EUR

French GDP (YoY) (4Q A)

1.3% (A)

1.1%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

-0.2% (A)

0.4%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)

1.5% (A)

2.4%

Low

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (JAN)

96.0

96.6

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (DEC)

5.2%

5.1%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JAN)

0.4%

0.2%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (JAN A)

0.9%

0.9%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0730

1.0828

1.0884

1.0926

1.0982

1.1024

1.1122

GBP/USD

1.3984

1.4159

1.4261

1.4334

1.4436

1.4509

1.4684

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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