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Pound May Rise as Bank of England Rhetoric, Market Outlook Clash

Pound May Rise as Bank of England Rhetoric, Market Outlook Clash

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Rise as BOE Rhetoric Clashes with Dovish Market View
  • Fed-Speak May Rekindle Risk Aversion After Early Selloff Fizzles Overnight
  • Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in Leading Currencies with DailyFX SSI

A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Governor Mark Carney and company are expected to keep things unchanged for now, putting the spotlight on minutes from the meeting of the rate-setting MPC committee to gauge where officialsoutlook going forward. Priced-in BOE rate hike expectations have tumbled over recent weeks, making it relatively difficult to engineer a dovish surprise versus a hawkish one. On balance, this may lay the groundwork for a British Pound recovery.

Risk aversion returned as a formative catalyst in early Asian trade as regional stock exchanges picked up cues from a selloff on Wall Street. The New Zealand Dollar underperformed among the risk-geared currencies. The Australian Dollar proved more resilient after December’s Employment figures topped expectations. The report revealed that the economy lost a net 1,000 jobs last month, a markedly better outcome than the 10,000 drawdown projected by economists.

Negativity appears to be waning ahead of the opening bell in Europe however, with Asian bourses trimming losses and S&P 500 futures pointing gently higher to signal a possible respite ahead. Downbeat sentiment may return on the back of hawkish Fed-speak however. Comments from James Bullard, the President of the central bank’s St. Louis branch and a voting member of this year’s FOMC committee, are due to cross the wires in the coming hours. Bullard has struck an unambiguously hawkish tone in recent months and more of the same may weigh on confidence if his remarks fuel fears of an aggressive Fed tightening cycle.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (DEC)

2.6%

-

0.4%

21:45

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (DEC)

-0.2%

0.5%

0.2%

21:45

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (DEC)

0.1%

-

0.2%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (NOV)

-14.4%

-7.3%

10.7%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (NOV)

1.2%

6.3%

10.3%

23:50

JPY

PPI (MoM) (DEC)

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

PPI (YoY) (DEC)

-3.4%

-3.5%

-3.6%

00:30

AUD

Employment Change (DEC)

-1.0k

-10.0k

74.9k

00:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (DEC)

5.8%

5.9%

5.8%

00:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (DEC)

17.6k

-

47.3k

00:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (DEC)

-18.5k

-

27.6k

00:30

AUD

Participation Rate (DEC)

65.1%

65.2%

65.3%

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (DEC P)

-25.8%

-

-17.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

-

-0.2%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

-

-1.1%

Low

09:00

EUR

German GDP NSA (YoY) (2015)

1.7%

1.6%

Medium

09:00

EUR

German Budget Maastricht % of GDP (2015)

0.5%

0.6%

Low

11:00

GBP

BOE's Andrew Bailey Speaks in London

-

-

Low

12:00

GBP

Bank of England Bank Rate (JAN 14)

0.5%

0.5%

High

12:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target (JAN)

375B

375B

High

12:30

EUR

ECB December Meeting Minutes

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0691

1.0774

1.0825

1.0857

1.0908

1.0940

1.1023

GBP/USD

1.4229

1.4325

1.4366

1.4421

1.4462

1.4517

1.4613

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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