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Markets Cheer China Data But Fed Comments May Sour Sentiment

Markets Cheer China Data But Fed Comments May Sour Sentiment

2016-01-13 07:37:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Upbeat China Trade Data Amplifies Sentiment Rebound in Overnight Trade
  • Fed Comments May Fuel US Dollar Gains, Trigger Renewed Risk Aversion
  • Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in Leading Currencies with DailyFX SSI

The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed while funding currencies like the Euro, Franc and Japanese Yen traded lower as risk appetite firmed in Asian trade. The move appeared to reflect carry-over from an upbeat day on Wall Street, where benchmark S&P 500 index posted the largest gain in nine sessions.

The chipper mood was bolstered by an upbeat set of Chinese trade figures. In Yuan terms, exports unexpectedly grew 2.3 percent year-on-year in December. Economists forecast a 4.1 percent decline ahead of the release. Cross-border sales fell in US Dollar terms, but the reported drop of 1.4 percent was far smaller than the 8 percent drawdown projected by analysts.

Looking ahead, another round of commentary from Federal Reserve officials is in focus. Chicago and Boston Fed Presidents Charles Evans and Eric Rosengren will comment on the outlook for growth and monetary policy. Evans represented the dovish end of the voting bloc on the 2015 FOMC, a role he hands of to Rosengren this year.

With that in mind, their comments may serve as a baseline for the rest of the committee. Indeed, if Evans and Rosengren foresee 3-4 rate hikes in 2016, this seems to imply the average Fed view is significantly more hawkish than prevailing market bets. Such a scenario is likely to prove broadly supportive for the US Dollar and but may rekindle risk aversion. An upbeat tone in the Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions may amplify this dynamic.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (DEC)

14.2%

-

15.0%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (DEC)

3.0%

3.3%

3.3%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (DEC)

2.5%

2.7%

2.7%

00:30

AUD

Job vacancies (NOV)

3.5%

-

3.5%

02:00

CNH

Trade Balance (CNY) (DEC)

382.05B

338.80B

343.10B

02:00

CNH

Exports (CNY) (YoY) (DEC)

2.3%

-4.1%

-3.7%

02:00

CNH

Imports (CNY) (YoY) (DEC)

-4.0%

-7.9%

-5.6%

02:55

CNH

Trade Balance ($) (DEC)

60.09B

51.3B

54.1B

02:55

CNH

Exports ($) (YoY) (DEC)

-1.4%

-8%

-6.8%

02:55

CNH

Imports ($) (YoY) (DEC)

-7.6%

-11%

-8.7%

04:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (DEC)

1.89%

-

-3.39%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

-0.3%

0.6%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

1.3%

1.9%

Medium

11:00

EUR

ECB's Lautenschlaeger Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0699

1.0779

1.0819

1.0859

1.0899

1.0939

1.1019

GBP/USD

1.4037

1.4245

1.4347

1.4453

1.4555

1.4661

1.4869

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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