Talking Points:
- Hawkish Tone from Fed VC Fischer to Lift US Dollar, Fuel Risk Aversion
- Pound May Rise as Comments BOE Governor Carney Boost Rate Hike Bets
- Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in Leading Currencies with DailyFX SSI
A relatively quiet economic data docket puts central bank commentary in the spotlight in European and US trading hours. Comments from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischerought to be particularly interesting because he tends to reflect the middle-ground consensus on the policy-setting FOMC committee. Rhetoric hinting the central bank will look past recent market turmoil to press on with rate hikes may boost the US Dollar and fuel risk aversion.
BOE Governor Mark Carney is also scheduled to speak. Investors will parse his remarks to gauge policymakers' confidence in overcoming imported disinflation from the Eurozone to raise rates in 2016. A recent dovish shift in market expectations suggests surprise risk is tilted on the upside for the British Pound in the event that Carney strikes a hawkish chord, clashing with the priced-in outlook and forcing re-positioning.
The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars underperformed while standby funding currencies – the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc – traded higher amid risk aversion in overnight trade. Japanese markets opened for the week having been closed for a holiday on Monday and took their turn to price in the same negativity that punished other regional bourses yesterday. This dragged down regional equities performance and echoed in currency markets.
Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.
Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:30 | AUD | Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (JAN 10) | 114.1 | - | 116.3 |
| 23:50 | JPY | BoP Current Account Balance (NOV) (¥) | 1143.5B | 895.0B | 1458.4B |
| 23:50 | JPY | BoP Current Account Adjusted (NOV) (¥) | 1423.5B | 1512.9B | 1493.7B |
| 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance BoP Basis (NOV) (¥) | -271.5B | -158.7B | 200.2B |
| 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (DEC) | 2.2% | - | 2.3% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (DEC) | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 00:00 | NZD | ANZ Commodity Price (DEC) | -1.8% | - | -5.6% |
| 00:01 | GBP | BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (DEC) | 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.4% |
| 00:30 | AUD | Credit Card Balances (NOV) (AUD) | 51.3B | - | 50.6B |
| 00:30 | AUD | Credit Card Purchases (NOV) | 25.6B | - | 24.8B |
| 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Index (DEC) | 42.7 | 42.5 | 42.6 |
| 06:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey Current (DEC) | 48.7 | 46.6 | 46.1 |
| 06:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (DEC) | 48.2 | 48.0 | 48.2 |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV) | 0.0% | 0.1% | Medium |
| 09:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) | 1.7% | 1.7% | Medium |
| 09:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) (NOV) | 0.1% | -0.4% | Medium |
| 09:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (YoY) (NOV) | -0.8% | -0.1% | Medium |
| 10:30 | EUR | ECB’s Praet Speaks in Paris | - | - | Low |
| 10:30 | USD | Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks in Paris | - | - | High |
| 11:00 | USD | NFIB Small Business Optimism (DEC) | 95.0 | 94.8 | Low |
| 14:15 | GBP | BOE Governor Carney Speaks in Paris | - | - | High |
| 15:00 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate (DEC) | - | 0.6% | Medium |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.0648 | 1.0770 | 1.0815 | 1.0892 | 1.0937 | 1.1014 | 1.1136 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4327 | 1.4437 | 1.4490 | 1.4547 | 1.4600 | 1.4657 | 1.4767 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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