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US Dollar and Pound May Rise on Fischer, Carney Commentary

US Dollar and Pound May Rise on Fischer, Carney Commentary

2016-01-12 07:02:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Hawkish Tone from Fed VC Fischer to Lift US Dollar, Fuel Risk Aversion
  • Pound May Rise as Comments BOE Governor Carney Boost Rate Hike Bets
  • Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in Leading Currencies with DailyFX SSI

A relatively quiet economic data docket puts central bank commentary in the spotlight in European and US trading hours. Comments from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischerought to be particularly interesting because he tends to reflect the middle-ground consensus on the policy-setting FOMC committee. Rhetoric hinting the central bank will look past recent market turmoil to press on with rate hikes may boost the US Dollar and fuel risk aversion.

BOE Governor Mark Carney is also scheduled to speak. Investors will parse his remarks to gauge policymakers' confidence in overcoming imported disinflation from the Eurozone to raise rates in 2016. A recent dovish shift in market expectations suggests surprise risk is tilted on the upside for the British Pound in the event that Carney strikes a hawkish chord, clashing with the priced-in outlook and forcing re-positioning.

The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars underperformed while standby funding currencies – the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc – traded higher amid risk aversion in overnight trade. Japanese markets opened for the week having been closed for a holiday on Monday and took their turn to price in the same negativity that punished other regional bourses yesterday. This dragged down regional equities performance and echoed in currency markets.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (JAN 10)

114.1

-

116.3

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (NOV) (¥)

1143.5B

895.0B

1458.4B

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (NOV) (¥)

1423.5B

1512.9B

1493.7B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (NOV) (¥)

-271.5B

-158.7B

200.2B

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (DEC)

2.2%

-

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (DEC)

2.2%

2.3%

2.3%

00:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (DEC)

-1.8%

-

-5.6%

00:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (DEC)

0.1%

0.5%

-0.4%

00:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (NOV) (AUD)

51.3B

-

50.6B

00:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (NOV)

25.6B

-

24.8B

05:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (DEC)

42.7

42.5

42.6

06:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Current (DEC)

48.7

46.6

46.1

06:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (DEC)

48.2

48.0

48.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.0%

0.1%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

1.7%

1.7%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

-0.4%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (NOV)

-0.8%

-0.1%

Medium

10:30

EUR

ECB’s Praet Speaks in Paris

-

-

Low

10:30

USD

Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks in Paris

-

-

High

11:00

USD

NFIB Small Business Optimism (DEC)

95.0

94.8

Low

14:15

GBP

BOE Governor Carney Speaks in Paris

-

-

High

15:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (DEC)

-

0.6%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0648

1.0770

1.0815

1.0892

1.0937

1.1014

1.1136

GBP/USD

1.4327

1.4437

1.4490

1.4547

1.4600

1.4657

1.4767

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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