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Euro, British Pound May Fall on Soft Eurozone Inflation Data

Euro, British Pound May Fall on Soft Eurozone Inflation Data

2016-01-05 04:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro, Pound May Fall if Soft Eurozone CPI Fuels ECB Easing Speculation
  • Yen Falls, Australian and Canadian Dollars Rise as Risk Appetite Recovers
  • Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in Leading Currencies with DailyFX SSI

Eurozone CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trade. The core year-on-year inflation rate expected to tick up to 1 percent. Yesterday’s disappointing set of analogous German price growth numbers warns a soft result may be in the cards however. Such an outcome may fuel bets on further expansion of ECB stimulus measures, weighing on the Euro. It may likewise punish the British Pound considering further ECB easing stands to compound imported disinflation pressure in the UK, delaying the onset of BOE rate hikes.

The Australian and Canadian Dollars outperformed in overnight trade in a move that appeared corrective in the context of yesterday’s broad-based selloff across the risky asset spectrum. Appropriately enough, the safety-linked Japanese Yen proved weakest on the session. S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher, suggesting the corrective recovery is aiming to carry forward in the hours ahead. With that in mind, we continue to see the path of least resistance as favoring risk aversion in the first part of 2016.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (JAN 03)

116.3

-

115.4

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base End of period (DEC) (¥)

356.1T

-

343.7T

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (DEC)

29.5%

-

32.5%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (NOV)

2.71%

-

3.32%

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (DEC)

-

-

0.3%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (000's) (DEC)

-8k

-13k

Medium

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (DEC)

6.3%

6.3%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (DEC)

56.0

55.3

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (DEC)

0.3%

0.2%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (DEC A)

1.0%

0.9%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0523

1.0688

1.0759

1.0853

1.0924

1.1018

1.1183

GBP/USD

1.4426

1.4579

1.4647

1.4732

1.4800

1.4885

1.5038

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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