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Australian Dollar May Bounce as Risk Appetite Recovers

Australian Dollar May Bounce as Risk Appetite Recovers

2015-12-09 06:38:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar May Bounce as Risk Appetite Recovers After Sharp Drop
  • New Zealand Dollar Declines as Markets Position for RBNZ Rate Decision
  • Euro, Yen Gain on Risk Aversion in Asia But Momentum May Be Fleeting

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade. The move tracked a drop in 3-month borrowing costs, hinting it may have reflected pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ monetary policy announcement. Traders are pricing in a 64 percent probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, according to OIS-derived estimates.

The US Dollar likewise faced selling pressure as prices corrected after hitting a weekly high in yesterday’s session. The Euro and the Japanese Yen proved best-supported as risk aversion carried over from Wall Street onto Asian bourses, encouraging the unwinding of carry traders funded in the two low-yielding currencies.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic data docket in European and US hours seems likely to put sentiment trends at the forefront. S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher in late Asian trade, hinting a recovery in risk appetite may be afoot after the MSCI World Stock Index – a proxy for the daily ebb and flow of global investors’ confidence – dropped to a three-week low yesterday.

This may cap Euro and Yen gains while offering a lifeline to higher-yielding alternatives, such as the Australian Dollar. The currency completed its largest two-day loss in six weeks against its US counterpart at the close of yesterday’s session. We are looking to any bounce from here as a selling opportunity.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf. Index (DEC)

100.8

-

101.7

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf. (MoM) (DEC)

-0.8%

-

3.9%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (OCT)

10.7%

-1.5%

7.5%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (OCT)

10.3%

0.6%

-1.7%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (NOV)

3.3%

3.5%

3.7%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (NOV)

2.7%

2.8%

2.9%

00:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (OCT)

-0.5%

-1.0%

2.0%

00:30

AUD

Investment Lending (OCT)

-6.1%

-

-8.2%

00:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

-

3.1%

01:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (NOV)

1.5%

1.4%

1.3%

01:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (NOV)

-5.9%

-6.0%

-5.9%

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (NOV P)

-17.9%

-

-22.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (NOV)

3.4%

3.3%

Medium

06:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (NOV)

3.4%

3.4%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (OCT)

21.7B

22.9B

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (OCT)

23.7B

25.1B

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (OCT)

-0.6%

2.6%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (OCT)

-1.0%

3.6%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Labor Costs WDA (YoY) (3Q)

-

3.1%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Labor Costs SA (QoQ) (3Q)

-

0.9%

Low

09:30

GBP

BOE FPC Nov. Meeting Minutes

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0729

1.0802

1.0847

1.0875

1.0920

1.0948

1.1021

GBP/USD

1.4801

1.4905

1.4956

1.5009

1.5060

1.5113

1.5217

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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