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Euro May Rise as ECB Leaves Markets Wanting

Euro May Rise as ECB Leaves Markets Wanting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Turn Higher as ECB Stimulus Expansion Leaves Markets Wanting
  • Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Find Support in Ebbing RBNZ and RBNZ Rate Cut Bets
  • Canadian Dollar Soars Alongside Oil Prices After Saudi Output Cut Rumor

All eyes have turned to the monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank, with Mario Draghi and company are widely expected to expand monetary stimulus. Options include broadening the scope of QE-eligible assets, scrapping the program’s September 2016 end date, increasing the size of monthly purchases from the current €60 billion and pushing the deposit rate deeper into negative territory from the current -20bps.

The markets seem primed for a big-splash accommodative gesture, raising the bar on the ECB to deliver a dovish-enough result to mollify investors and increasing the threat of disappointment. If traders are left unimpressed, the Euro is likely to rise amid profit-taking on short positions while broad-based risk appetite deteriorates, weighing on sentiment-linked FX including the Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

The Kiwi returned to the offensive overnight following yesterday’s corrective pullback. The move tracked rising front-end bond yields, pointing to fading RBNZ rate cut speculation as the driving catalyst. The Aussie came under early selling pressure following disappointing Trade Balance data. Here too however, an improving policy outlook proved supportive and largely offset data-inspired losses.

The Canadian Dollar raced higher after Energy Intelligence (EI) reported that Saudi Arabia may propose a 1 million barrel output cut to stabilize global oil prices at some point in 2016. The news sent crude oil prices sharply higher, pulling the Loonie upward along the way. The kingdom is said to condition its acceptance of a cut on participation from non-OPEC producers as well as Iran and Iraq. EI cited an unidentified OPEC delegate as the source of the story.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Value of All Buildings SA (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

1.8%

1.6%

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Services Index (NOV)

48.2

-

48.9

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (OCT)

3.32%

-

2.87%

00:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT)

-3.0%

-

-4.0%

00:30

AUD

Trade Balance (A$) (OCT)

-3305M

-2600M

-2406M

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Services (NOV)

51.6

-

52.2

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (NOV)

52.3

-

52.3

01:45

CNH

Caixin China PMI Composite (NOV)

50.5

-

49.9

01:45

CNH

Caixin China PMI Services (NOV)

51.2

-

52.0

06:30

JPY

BOJ’s Kiuchi Speaks in Tokyo

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (NOV)

53.9

53.4

Low

08:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (NOV)

-

53.9

Low

08:50

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (NOV F)

51.3

51.3

Low

08:50

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (NOV F)

51.3

51.3

Low

08:55

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV F)

55.6

55.6

Medium

08:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (NOV F)

54.9

54.9

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV F)

54.6

54.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV F)

54.6

54.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (NOV F)

54.4

54.4

Medium

09:30

GBP

Official Reserves Changes (NOV)

-

$16M

Low

09:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (NOV)

55.0

54.9

High

09:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (NOV)

55.0

55.4

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

2.6%

2.9%

Medium

12:45

EUR

ECB Main Refinancing Rate (DEC 3)

0.05%

0.05%

High

12:45

EUR

ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DEC 3)

-0.30%

-0.20%

High

12:45

EUR

ECB Marginal Lending Facility (DEC 3)

0.30%

0.30%

High

13:30

EUR

ECB Draghi Holds Press Conference

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0431

1.0516

1.0565

1.0601

1.0650

1.0686

1.0771

GBPUSD

1.4602

1.4789

1.4871

1.4976

1.5058

1.5163

1.5350

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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