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Australian Dollar Shrugs Off Status-Quo RBA Policy Announcement

Australian Dollar Shrugs Off Status-Quo RBA Policy Announcement

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Yields Tepid Reaction to Status-Quo RBA Policy Announcement
  • Euro Likely to Look Past German Figures Data as ECB Meeting Looms Large
  • British Pound May Decline if UK PMI Weighs on BOE Rate Hike Speculation

The Australian Dollar edged higher as the RBA kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent, as expected. The move was relatively modest however, pushing prices toward highs recorded earlier in the session but failing to build substantive momentum thereafter. The currency scored initial gains following Australian Current Account and Chinese PMI data and corrected slightly lower amid pre-positioning before the RBA announcement crossed the wires.

The tepid response probably reflects the largely familiar tone of the policy statement accompanying the rate decision. Governor Glenn Stevens maintained that the Bank is in data-dependent mode going forward, repeating the now-familiar refrain that “the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing…should that be appropriate.”

Perhaps most interestingly, Stevens noted that “the pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated” in the boom market of Sydney and Melbourne while remaining subdued elsewhere. He added that “supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market”. The buoyant housing market was an important reason to delay easing while macro-prudential efforts took hold. Signs that this may be happening could lower the bar for stimulus expansion in the months ahead.

Looking ahead, German Unemployment figures and the UK Manufacturing PMI report headline the economic calendar. The former data set seems unlikely to inspire a significant response from the Euro as traders look ahead to the ECB policy announcement due later in the week for substantive direction cues. The latter is forecast to show a slowdown in the pace of factory-sector activity. UK news-flow has deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, opening the door for a downside surprise that may undercut BOE rate hike bets and weigh on the British Pound.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)

-3.7%

-2.6%

1.5%

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf.

112.8

-

114.5

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (Nov)

52.5

-

50.2

23:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (Nov)

-1.5%

-

0.2%

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (Nov)

15.0%

-

14.0%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (YoY) (3Q)

11.2%

2.2%

5.6%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending Ex Software (3Q)

11.2%

1.7%

6.6%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (3Q)

9.0%

-

23.8%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (3Q)

0.1%

-

1.1%

00:30

AUD

Net Exports of GDP (3Q)

1.5%

1.2%

-0.6%

00:30

AUD

BoP Current Account Balance (A$) (3Q)

-18.1B

-16.5B

-20.5B

00:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)

3.9%

-2.5%

2.3%

00:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (Oct)

12.3%

5.7%

22.0%

01:00

CNH

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

49.6

49.8

49.8

01:00

CNH

Non-manufacturing PMI (Nov)

53.6

-

53.1

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (Nov F)

52.6

-

52.8

01:45

CNH

Caixin China PMI Mfg (Nov)

48.6

48.3

48.3

03:30

AUD

RBA Cash Rate Target (Dec 1)

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (Nov)

0.3%

-

0.2%

05:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (Nov)

75.6

-

79.1

05:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (Nov)

-22.0%

-

-19.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:45

CHF

GDP (QoQ) (3Q)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

06:45

CHF

GDP (YoY) (3Q)

0.8%

1.2%

Medium

07:00

GBP

BOE Financial Report, Stress-Test Results

-

-

Medium

08:00

GBP

BoE Governor Carney Holds Press Conference

-

-

Medium

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (Oct)

-

0.2%

Low

08:30

CHF

procure.ch Mfg PMI (Nov)

50.8

50.7

Low

08:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (Nov)

54.2

54.1

Low

08:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (Nov F)

50.8

50.8

Low

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (Nov)

-5k

-5k

Medium

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate (Nov)

6.4%

6.4%

Medium

08:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (Nov F)

52.6

52.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (Nov F)

52.8

52.8

Medium

09:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (Nov)

53.6

55.5

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Oct)

10.8%

10.8%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0495

1.0534

1.055

1.0573

1.0589

1.0612

1.0651

GBPUSD

1.4890

1.4965

1.501

1.5040

1.5085

1.5115

1.5190

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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