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Currency Swings in Thin Markets to Struggle for Follow-Through

Currency Swings in Thin Markets to Struggle for Follow-Through

2015-11-26 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Currency Swings in Thin Holiday Trade Likely to Struggle for Follow-Through
  • New Zealand Dollar Outperforms After Yields Rise, Demand Firms at Bond Sale
  • Australian Dollar Falls After Capex Unexpectedly Drops Most on Record in 3Q

The European data docket offers a lackluster set of low-tier releases and US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. This could make for a period of directionless drift across the G10 FX space. However, illiquid trading conditions may amplify knee-jerk volatility in the event that an unexpected event risk spooks the markets. Seemingly potent moves generated under these circumstances may struggle for follow-through and unravel once market participation fills out anew.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade following an auction of 2020 government bonds. The average yield rose to 2.87 percent from 2.73 percent at last month’s sale of analogous paper even as demand strengthened, with the bid-to-cover ratio rising to 2.87 from 2.64. That hinted at improving monetary policy expectations and a swell in investors’ appetite for NZD-denominated assets.

The Australian Dollar spiked lower after an ABS report showed that private capex spending unexpectedly fell 9.2 percent in the third quarter, marking the largest decline since records began in 1987. The currency tracked front-end bond yields downward, suggesting the soft result fueled RBA rate cut speculation. The move lost momentum relatively quickly however as prices reverted to quiet consolidation amid pre-holiday thinning of liquidity.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (OCT)

-963M

-1000M

-1140M

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance 12mo YTD (NZ$) (OCT)

-3237M

-3318M

-3165M

21:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (OCT)

3.83B

4.0B

3.68B

21:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (OCT)

4.79B

4.97B

4.82B

00:30

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure (3Q)

-9.2%

-2.9%

-4.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:15

CHF

Industrial Output (YoY) (3Q)

-

-2.5%

Low

08:15

CHF

Industry & Construction Output (YoY) (3Q)

-

-2.5%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT)

4.9%

4.9%

Low

12:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence (DEC)

9.2

9.4

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0380

1.0503

1.0564

1.0626

1.0687

1.0749

1.0872

GBPUSD

1.4947

1.5027

1.5078

1.5107

1.5158

1.5187

1.5267

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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