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Pound Eyes Carney Comments, Euro May Overlook German Data

Pound Eyes Carney Comments, Euro May Overlook German Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound Looks to Carney Testimony to Guide BOE Rate Hike Timeline
  • Euro May Ignore German GDP, IFO as Near-Term ECB Bets Predominate
  • TrackEconomic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

UK monetary policy expectations are in focus in European trading hours as investors set sights on scheduled testimony from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Imported disinflation courtesy of crude oil prices and the exchange rate remains the key issue for policymakers as they work out the stimulus withdrawal.

With that in mind, traders will closely monitor Carney’s comments to gauge his confidence in putting price growth back on a path toward the 2 percent target in time to begin tightening in the second half of 2016. The compounding of headwinds from a possible ECB stimulus expansion next month and the expected difficulty of overcoming them ought to be particularly interesting. An assured tone may boost the British Pound while a timid one could have the opposite effect.

The final revision of third-quarter German GDP figures ought to pass with relatively little fanfare considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy trends. As in the UK, the currency bloc’s monetary policy authority is primarily focused on overcoming disinflation and their looming decision on ramping up accommodation will have most to do with boosting price growth expectations, not stoking near-term activity.

November’s German IFO Survey of business confidence is also on tap. It ought to be interesting to see if bets on greater monetary policy support will drive a larger than expected increase in the forward-looking Expectations index. If so, this could hint at a dovish tilt in the priced-in outlook that could shape Euro trading patterns in response to December’s policy announcement. As with GDP however, a volatile near-term response seems unlikely.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

114.5

-

115.9

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (NOV P)

52.8

-

52.4

05:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (OCT)

2.8%

-

2.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (3Q F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q F)

1.7%

1.7%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (3Q F)

1.8%

1.8%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Private Consumption (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

0.2%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Government Spending (QoQ) (3Q)

0.4%

0.3%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Capital Investment (QoQ) (3Q)

0.0%

-0.4%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Construction Investment (QoQ) (3Q)

0.1%

-1.2%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Domestic Demand (QoQ) (3Q)

0.7%

-0.3%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Exports (QoQ) (3Q)

0.4%

2.2%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Imports (QoQ) (3Q)

1.0%

0.8%

Low

09:00

EUR

German IFO Business Climate (NOV)

108.2

108.2

Medium

09:00

EUR

German IFO Current Assessment (NOV)

112.4

112.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

German IFO Expectations (NOV)

104.0

103.8

Medium

09:05

AUD

RBA's Stevens Speaks at ABE Dinner

-

-

Medium

10:00

GBP

BOE Carney, Haldane Testify to Treasury Cmte.

-

-

Medium

11:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (NOV)

25.0

19.0

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0501

1.0565

1.0600

1.0629

1.0664

1.0693

1.0757

GBPUSD

1.4942

1.5045

1.5085

1.5148

1.5188

1.5251

1.5354

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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