Pound Eyes Carney Comments, Euro May Overlook German Data
- British Pound Looks to Carney Testimony to Guide BOE Rate Hike Timeline
- Euro May Ignore German GDP, IFO as Near-Term ECB Bets Predominate
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UK monetary policy expectations are in focus in European trading hours as investors set sights on scheduled testimony from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Imported disinflation courtesy of crude oil prices and the exchange rate remains the key issue for policymakers as they work out the stimulus withdrawal.
With that in mind, traders will closely monitor Carney’s comments to gauge his confidence in putting price growth back on a path toward the 2 percent target in time to begin tightening in the second half of 2016. The compounding of headwinds from a possible ECB stimulus expansion next month and the expected difficulty of overcoming them ought to be particularly interesting. An assured tone may boost the British Pound while a timid one could have the opposite effect.
The final revision of third-quarter German GDP figures ought to pass with relatively little fanfare considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy trends. As in the UK, the currency bloc’s monetary policy authority is primarily focused on overcoming disinflation and their looming decision on ramping up accommodation will have most to do with boosting price growth expectations, not stoking near-term activity.
November’s German IFO Survey of business confidence is also on tap. It ought to be interesting to see if bets on greater monetary policy support will drive a larger than expected increase in the forward-looking Expectations index. If so, this could hint at a dovish tilt in the priced-in outlook that could shape Euro trading patterns in response to December’s policy announcement. As with GDP however, a volatile near-term response seems unlikely.
Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.
|22:30||AUD||ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf||114.5||-||115.9|
|01:35||JPY||Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (NOV P)||52.8||-||52.4|
|05:00||JPY||Supermarket Sales (YoY) (OCT)||2.8%||-||2.9%|
|07:00||EUR||German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (3Q F)||0.3%||0.3%||Medium|
|07:00||EUR||German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q F)||1.7%||1.7%||Medium|
|07:00||EUR||German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (3Q F)||1.8%||1.8%||Medium|
|07:00||EUR||German Private Consumption (QoQ) (3Q)||0.5%||0.2%||Low|
|07:00||EUR||German Government Spending (QoQ) (3Q)||0.4%||0.3%||Low|
|07:00||EUR||German Capital Investment (QoQ) (3Q)||0.0%||-0.4%||Low|
|07:00||EUR||German Construction Investment (QoQ) (3Q)||0.1%||-1.2%||Low|
|07:00||EUR||German Domestic Demand (QoQ) (3Q)||0.7%||-0.3%||Low|
|07:00||EUR||German Exports (QoQ) (3Q)||0.4%||2.2%||Low|
|07:00||EUR||German Imports (QoQ) (3Q)||1.0%||0.8%||Low|
|09:00||EUR||German IFO Business Climate (NOV)||108.2||108.2||Medium|
|09:00||EUR||German IFO Current Assessment (NOV)||112.4||112.6||Medium|
|09:00||EUR||German IFO Expectations (NOV)||104.0||103.8||Medium|
|09:05||AUD||RBA's Stevens Speaks at ABE Dinner||-||-||Medium|
|10:00||GBP||BOE Carney, Haldane Testify to Treasury Cmte.||-||-||Medium|
|11:00||GBP||CBI Reported Sales (NOV)||25.0||19.0||Low|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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