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US Dollar May Reverse Drop as Markets Rethink Fed Rate Hike Chances

US Dollar May Reverse Drop as Markets Rethink Fed Rate Hike Chances

2015-11-19 06:49:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Drops as Fed Meeting Minutes Cast Doubt on December Rate Hike
  • On-Coming Fed-Speak May Encourage Rethink of Imminent “Liftoff” Chances
  • TrackEconomic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade amid continued fallout following the release of minutes from October’s Fed policy meeting. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed as risk appetite firmed, driving the sentiment-linked currencies upward. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose over 1 percent.

Traders latched on to comments from a dovish minority on the rate-setting FOMC committee that remained dubious about the likelihood of a December rate hike. That seemed to inspire hopes that liftoff may yet be delayed. This was presumably seen as supportive as markets continue to fear stimulus withdrawal at a time when overall global growth is slowing.

S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher in late Asian trade, hinting the risk-on mood is poised to carry forward. The move may swiftly fizzle however as cooler heads prevail over knee-jerk optimism. The Minutes document showed that almost all Fed officials agreed on a need to assess labor market strength. That seemed to set the stage for what was needed to cement rate hike chances. The subsequent 271k surge in nonfarm payrolls may have delivered precisely what Janet Yellen and company were looking for.

Scheduled commentary from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer – both of whom seemingly lean toward December liftoff based on recent commentary – may drive this point home in the hours ahead. That could trigger a swift reversal in the greenback’s fortunes, reversing overnight losses.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (OCT)

1.2%

-

2.3%

21:45

NZD

PPI Input (QoQ) (3Q)

1.6%

-

-0.3%

21:45

NZD

PPI Output (QoQ) (3Q)

1.3%

-

-0.2%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance (¥) (OCT)

111.5B

-246.3B

-115.8B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance Adjusted (¥) (OCT)

-202.3B

-343.1B

-309.8B

23:50

JPY

Exports (YoY) (OCT)

-2.1%

-2.0%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

Imports (YoY) (OCT)

-13.4%

-8.6%

-11.0%

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Government (OCT)

-579M

-

-785M

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (OCT)

516M

-

712M

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (OCT)

83M

-

89M

01:45

CNY

MNI Business Indicator (NOV)

49.9

-

55.6

03:17

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

¥80T

¥80T

¥80T

04:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (SEP)

-0.2%

0.2%

-0.1%

05:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (OCT)

4.2%

-

1.8%

05:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (OCT)

7.4%

-

4.9%

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (OCT F)

-22.9%

-

-23.1%

06:30

JPY

BOJ’s Kuroda Gives Press Conference

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

CHF

Trade Balance (OCT)

-

3.05B

Medium

07:00

CHF

Exports Real (MoM) (OCT)

-

0.2%

Low

07:00

CHF

Imports Real (MoM) (OCT)

-

2.6%

Low

08:00

EUR

ECB's Coeure Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Medium

08:30

EUR

ECB's Praet Speaks at Europe Finance Week

-

-

Medium

09:00

EUR

ECB Current Account SA (SEP)

-

17.7B

Low

09:00

EUR

ECB Current Account NSA (SEP)

-

13.7B

Low

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (OCT)

-0.6%

1.7%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (OCT)

3.9%

5.9%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (OCT)

-0.5%

1.9%

Low

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (OCT)

4.5%

6.5%

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (NOV)

-10

-18

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (NOV)

-6

-7

Low

12:30

EUR

ECB Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0506

1.0581

1.0621

1.0656

1.0696

1.0731

1.0806

GBPUSD

1.5103

1.5164

1.5200

1.5225

1.5261

1.5286

1.5347

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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