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Euro May Overlook 3Q GDP Data, US Dollar Eyes Retail Sales Report

Euro May Overlook 3Q GDP Data, US Dollar Eyes Retail Sales Report

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Strength in Upbeat 3Q Eurozone GDP Data
  • US Dollar May Rise if Upbeat Retail Sales Data Bolsters Fed Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of third-quarter Eurozone GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to edge higher to 1.7 percent, the highest in four years. An upbeat outcome seems unlikely to offer meaningful support to the Euro however considering the figures’ limited impact for near-term monetary policy bets.

ECB President Mario Draghi struck a firmly dovish tone as he testified to the EU Parliament yesterday, telegraphing a strong possibility for stimulus expansion at next month’s policy meeting. The central bank chief said that “normalization of inflation could take longer than anticipated,” adding that downside risks are “clearly visible” and warning that a “signs of a turnaround in core inflation have weakened”. This means that – absent a dramatically strong upside deviation from consensus forecasts – the data probably won’t offer lasting support to the single currency.

Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to October’s USRetail Sales report is in the spotlight. Expectations call for an increase of 0.3 percent, marking a narrow improvement from September’s 0.1 percent increase. Economists have steadily downgraded expectations for US economic data outcomes even as realized results have broadly outperformed since early October (according to data from Citigroup). This opens the door for an upside surprise, which may bolster the likelihood of a December Fed rate hike in the minds of investors and send the US Dollar higher.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

02:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (OCT)

68.8%

-

68.7%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP F)

1.1%

-

1.0%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP F)

-0.8%

-

-0.9%

04:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (SEP)

1.5%

-

-0.9%

04:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (SEP)

-0.4%

0.1%

0.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:30

EUR

France GDP (YoY) (3Q P)

1.1%

1.1%

Medium

06:30

EUR

France GDP (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.3%

0.0%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.3%

0.4%

High

07:00

EUR

German GDP WDA (YoY) (3Q P)

1.8%

1.6%

High

07:00

EUR

German GDP NSA (YoY) (3Q P)

1.8%

1.6%

High

08:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (OCT)

-0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

08:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (OCT)

-6.8%

-6.8%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (MoM) (SEP)

1.5%

-4.3%

Low

09:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (YoY) (SEP)

-0.4%

-1.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance SA (SEP)

19.3B

19.8B

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance NSA (SEP)

16.0B

11.2B

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q A)

0.4%

0.4%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (YoY) (3Q A)

1.7%

1.5%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0500

1.0639

1.0727

1.0778

1.0866

1.0917

1.1056

GBPUSD

1.5072

1.5145

1.5189

1.5218

1.5262

1.5291

1.5364

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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