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Euro May Overlook 3Q GDP Data, US Dollar Eyes Retail Sales Report

Euro May Overlook 3Q GDP Data, US Dollar Eyes Retail Sales Report

Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Strength in Upbeat 3Q Eurozone GDP Data
  • US Dollar May Rise if Upbeat Retail Sales Data Bolsters Fed Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of third-quarter Eurozone GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to edge higher to 1.7 percent, the highest in four years. An upbeat outcome seems unlikely to offer meaningful support to the Euro however considering the figures’ limited impact for near-term monetary policy bets.

ECB President Mario Draghi struck a firmly dovish tone as he testified to the EU Parliament yesterday, telegraphing a strong possibility for stimulus expansion at next month’s policy meeting. The central bank chief said that “normalization of inflation could take longer than anticipated,” adding that downside risks are “clearly visible” and warning that a “signs of a turnaround in core inflation have weakened”. This means that – absent a dramatically strong upside deviation from consensus forecasts – the data probably won’t offer lasting support to the single currency.

Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to October’s USRetail Sales report is in the spotlight. Expectations call for an increase of 0.3 percent, marking a narrow improvement from September’s 0.1 percent increase. Economists have steadily downgraded expectations for US economic data outcomes even as realized results have broadly outperformed since early October (according to data from Citigroup). This opens the door for an upside surprise, which may bolster the likelihood of a December Fed rate hike in the minds of investors and send the US Dollar higher.


Asia Session

02:00NZDNon Resident Bond Holdings (OCT)68.8%-68.7%
04:30JPYIndustrial Production (MoM) (SEP F)1.1%-1.0%
04:30JPYIndustrial Production (YoY) (SEP F)-0.8%--0.9%
04:30JPYCapacity Utilization (MoM) (SEP)1.5%--0.9%
04:30JPYTertiary Industry Index (MoM) (SEP)-0.4%0.1%0.1%

European Session

06:30EURFrance GDP (YoY) (3Q P)1.1%1.1%Medium
06:30EURFrance GDP (QoQ) (3Q P)0.3%0.0%Medium
07:00EURGerman GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q P)0.3%0.4%High
07:00EURGerman GDP WDA (YoY) (3Q P)1.8%1.6%High
07:00EURGerman GDP NSA (YoY) (3Q P)1.8%1.6%High
08:15CHFProducer & Import Prices (MoM) (OCT)-0.2%-0.1%Medium
08:15CHFProducer & Import Prices (YoY) (OCT)-6.8%-6.8%Medium
09:30GBPConstruction Output SA (MoM) (SEP)1.5%-4.3%Low
09:30GBPConstruction Output SA (YoY) (SEP)-0.4%-1.3%Low
10:00EUREurozone Trade Balance SA (SEP)19.3B19.8BLow
10:00EUREurozone Trade Balance NSA (SEP)16.0B11.2BLow
10:00EUREurozone GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q A)0.4%0.4%High
10:00EUREurozone GDP SA (YoY) (3Q A)1.7%1.5%High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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