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US Dollar Rally Looks for Fresh Fodder in Fed Commentary

US Dollar Rally Looks for Fresh Fodder in Fed Commentary

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Fresh Fodder After Hitting 12-Year High
  • New Zealand Dollar Gains as Traders Question RBNZ Rate Cut Probability
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet economic data docket at the start of the trading week is likely to put Fed-speak in the spotlight. Remarks from Eric Rosengren kick off a busy week of scheduled commentary. Traders will be keen to see if the typically dovish Boston Fed President was swayed in favor of a near-term rate hike by last week’s impressive payrolls data. Rhetoric suggesting as much is likely to offer a boost to the US Dollar. Rosengren is not a voter on the current FOMC committee but will be one in 2016, making him an active participant in the on-coming policy normalization process.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade. The move was accompanied by a push higher in bond yields, suggesting an improvement in investors’ RBNZ outlook may have been behind the move. Indeed, a gauge of the priced-in policy view implied in OIS rates moved to the highest level since late April. The indicator now shows traders are no longer convinced that another rate cut is due in the next 12 months. The Yen traded broadly lower as Japanese stocks moved higher, undermining demand for the anti-risk unit. The greenback likewise weakened, correcting downward after jumping to a 12-year high last week.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
03:00CNHTrade Balance ($) (OCT)61.64B62.00B60.34B
03:00CNHExports (YoY) (OCT)-6.9%-3.2%-3.7%
03:00CNHImports (YoY) (OCT)-18.8%-15.2%-20.4%
03:00CNHTrade Balance (CNY) (OCT)393.2B367.1B376.2B
03:23CNHExports (CNY) (YoY) (OCT)-3.6%-3.1%-1.1%
03:23CNHImports (CNY) (YoY) (OCT)-16.0%-11.7%-17.7%
23:50JPYOfficial Reserve Assets ($) (OCT)1244.2B-1248.9B
00:30AUDANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (OCT)0.4%-3.8%
01:30JPYLabor Cash Earnings (YoY) (SEP)0.6%0.5%0.4%
01:30JPYReal Cash Earnings (YoY) (SEP)0.5%0.3%0.1%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
07:00EURGerman Trade Balance (SEP)20.0B15.4BMedium
07:00EURGerman Current Account Balance (SEP)21.9B12.3BMedium
07:00EURGerman Exports SA (MoM) (SEP)2.0%-5.2%Low
07:00EURGerman Imports SA (MoM) (SEP)1.0%-3.2%Low
08:00CHFTotal Sight Deposits (NOV 6)-467.4BLow
08:00CHFDomestic Sight Deposits (NOV 6)-401.3BLow
09:30EUREurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (NOV)13.111.7Low
10:30EUREurozone OECD Economic Outlook --Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.04071.05941.06671.07811.08541.09681.1155
GBPUSD1.47161.49081.49801.51001.51721.52921.5484

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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