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US Dollar Rally Looks for Fresh Fodder in Fed Commentary

US Dollar Rally Looks for Fresh Fodder in Fed Commentary

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Fresh Fodder After Hitting 12-Year High
  • New Zealand Dollar Gains as Traders Question RBNZ Rate Cut Probability
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet economic data docket at the start of the trading week is likely to put Fed-speak in the spotlight. Remarks from Eric Rosengren kick off a busy week of scheduled commentary. Traders will be keen to see if the typically dovish Boston Fed President was swayed in favor of a near-term rate hike by last week’s impressive payrolls data. Rhetoric suggesting as much is likely to offer a boost to the US Dollar. Rosengren is not a voter on the current FOMC committee but will be one in 2016, making him an active participant in the on-coming policy normalization process.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade. The move was accompanied by a push higher in bond yields, suggesting an improvement in investors’ RBNZ outlook may have been behind the move. Indeed, a gauge of the priced-in policy view implied in OIS rates moved to the highest level since late April. The indicator now shows traders are no longer convinced that another rate cut is due in the next 12 months. The Yen traded broadly lower as Japanese stocks moved higher, undermining demand for the anti-risk unit. The greenback likewise weakened, correcting downward after jumping to a 12-year high last week.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

03:00

CNH

Trade Balance ($) (OCT)

61.64B

62.00B

60.34B

03:00

CNH

Exports (YoY) (OCT)

-6.9%

-3.2%

-3.7%

03:00

CNH

Imports (YoY) (OCT)

-18.8%

-15.2%

-20.4%

03:00

CNH

Trade Balance (CNY) (OCT)

393.2B

367.1B

376.2B

03:23

CNH

Exports (CNY) (YoY) (OCT)

-3.6%

-3.1%

-1.1%

03:23

CNH

Imports (CNY) (YoY) (OCT)

-16.0%

-11.7%

-17.7%

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (OCT)

1244.2B

-

1248.9B

00:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

-

3.8%

01:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (SEP)

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

01:30

JPY

Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (SEP)

0.5%

0.3%

0.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (SEP)

20.0B

15.4B

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (SEP)

21.9B

12.3B

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (SEP)

2.0%

-5.2%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (SEP)

1.0%

-3.2%

Low

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (NOV 6)

-

467.4B

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (NOV 6)

-

401.3B

Low

09:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (NOV)

13.1

11.7

Low

10:30

EUR

Eurozone OECD Economic Outlook

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0407

1.0594

1.0667

1.0781

1.0854

1.0968

1.1155

GBPUSD

1.4716

1.4908

1.4980

1.5100

1.5172

1.5292

1.5484

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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