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US Dollar, Pound May Take Divergent Paths on Manufacturing Data

US Dollar, Pound May Take Divergent Paths on Manufacturing Data

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • British Pound Vulnerable if Soft PMI Data Weighs on BOE Tightening Bets
  • US Dollar May Rise if ISM Print Builds on Hawkish FOMC Policy Statement
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

October’s UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations point to a print at 51.3, marking the third consecutive slowdown in the pace of factory-sector activity growth. UK news-flow has weakened relative to consensus forecasts recently (according to data from Citigroup), opening the door for a downside surprise. That may stoke speculation of a dovish turn in BOE rhetoric at this week’s policy meeting, weighing on the British Pound.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the US ISM Manufacturing index. A drop to 50.0 is expected, amounting to the fourth consecutive deterioration and the lowest reading since December 2012. Realized US data outcomes have cautiously improved relative to expectations in the past month, recent disappointments notwithstanding. That hints at the possibility of a better-than-forecast print, which could build on last week’s hawkish FOMC statement and boost the US Dollar.


Asia Session

01:00CNYManufacturing PMI (OCT)49.850.049.8
01:00CNYNon-manufacturing PMI (OCT)53.1-53.4
22:30AUDAiG Perf of Mfg Index (OCT)50.2-52.1
23:00AUDCoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (OCT)0.2%-0.9%
23:30AUDTD Securities Inflation (MoM) (OCT)0.0%-0.3%
23:30AUDTD Securities Inflation (YoY) (OCT)1.8%-1.9%
00:30AUDBuilding Approvals (MoM) (SEP)2.2%1.0%-9.5%
00:30AUDBuilding Approvals (YoY) (SEP)21.4%24.1%4.7%
01:35JPYNikkei Japan PMI Mfg (OCT F)52.4-52.5
01:45CNYCaixin China PMI Mfg (OCT)48.347.647.2
05:00JPYVehicle Sales (YoY) (OCT)0.2%--3.0%
05:30AUDCommodity Index AUD (OCT)79.1-81.4
05:30AUDCommodity Index (YoY) (OCT)-19.8%--21.3%

European Session

08:00CHFTotal Sight Deposits (OCT 30)-467.0BLow
08:00CHFDomestic Sight Deposits (OCT 30)-401.2BLow
08:15CHFRetail Sales Real (YoY) (SEP)--0.3%Low
08:30CHFPMI Manufacturing (OCT)50.149.5Medium
08:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (OCT)53.152.7Low
08:50EURMarkit France Mfg PMI (OCT F)50.750.7Low
08:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (OCT F)51.651.6Medium
09:00EURMarkit Eurozone Mfg PMI (OCT F)52.052.0Medium
09:30GBPMarkit UK Mfg PMI SA (OCT)51.351.5High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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