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US Dollar, Pound May Take Divergent Paths on Manufacturing Data

US Dollar, Pound May Take Divergent Paths on Manufacturing Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound Vulnerable if Soft PMI Data Weighs on BOE Tightening Bets
  • US Dollar May Rise if ISM Print Builds on Hawkish FOMC Policy Statement
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

October’s UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations point to a print at 51.3, marking the third consecutive slowdown in the pace of factory-sector activity growth. UK news-flow has weakened relative to consensus forecasts recently (according to data from Citigroup), opening the door for a downside surprise. That may stoke speculation of a dovish turn in BOE rhetoric at this week’s policy meeting, weighing on the British Pound.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the US ISM Manufacturing index. A drop to 50.0 is expected, amounting to the fourth consecutive deterioration and the lowest reading since December 2012. Realized US data outcomes have cautiously improved relative to expectations in the past month, recent disappointments notwithstanding. That hints at the possibility of a better-than-forecast print, which could build on last week’s hawkish FOMC statement and boost the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

01:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (OCT)

49.8

50.0

49.8

01:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT)

53.1

-

53.4

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (OCT)

50.2

-

52.1

23:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

-

0.9%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (OCT)

0.0%

-

0.3%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (OCT)

1.8%

-

1.9%

00:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (SEP)

2.2%

1.0%

-9.5%

00:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (SEP)

21.4%

24.1%

4.7%

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (OCT F)

52.4

-

52.5

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Mfg (OCT)

48.3

47.6

47.2

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (OCT)

0.2%

-

-3.0%

05:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (OCT)

79.1

-

81.4

05:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (OCT)

-19.8%

-

-21.3%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (OCT 30)

-

467.0B

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (OCT 30)

-

401.2B

Low

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (SEP)

-

-0.3%

Low

08:30

CHF

PMI Manufacturing (OCT)

50.1

49.5

Medium

08:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (OCT)

53.1

52.7

Low

08:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (OCT F)

50.7

50.7

Low

08:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (OCT F)

51.6

51.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (OCT F)

52.0

52.0

Medium

09:30

GBP

Markit UK Mfg PMI SA (OCT)

51.3

51.5

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0803

1.0909

1.0957

1.1015

1.1063

1.1121

1.1227

GBPUSD

1.5081

1.5241

1.5335

1.5401

1.5495

1.5561

1.5721

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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