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Euro May Extend Decline as Soft PMI Data Bolsters ECB Easing Bets

Euro May Extend Decline as Soft PMI Data Bolsters ECB Easing Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Drop Further as Soft PMI Data Bolsters Stimulus Expansion Bets
  • Australian, NZ Dollars Rise as Post-ECB Risk Rally Moves to Asian Bourses
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of October’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The regional Composite gauge is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth slowed for the second consecutive month, registering at the weakest level since February.

Economic news-flow out of the currency bloc has increasingly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, hinting that analysts are underestimating the degree of malaise plaguing the region. That opens the door for a downside surprise, which may feed ECB stimulus expansion bets and compound downside pressure on the Euro.

The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as Asian bourses mirrored yesterday’s swell in risk appetite on Wall Street. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose over 1 percent as traders cheered a dovish ECB policy announcement that paved the way for further easing at the central bank’s December sit-down.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

01:30

CNY

China September Property Prices

-

-

-

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (OCT P)

52.5

50.5

51.0

02:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (SEP)

339.5

-

334.2

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (AUG F)

103.5

-

103.5

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (AUG F)

112.2

-

112.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (OCT P)

50.2

50.6

Low

07:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (OCT P)

51.7

51.9

Low

07:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (OCT P)

51.6

51.9

Low

07:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (OCT P)

51.7

52.3

Medium

07:30

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (OCT P)

53.9

54.1

Medium

07:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (OCT P)

53.7

54.1

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (OCT P)

51.7

52

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (OCT P)

53.5

53.7

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (OCT P)

53.4

53.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone 2Q Government Debt

-

-

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone 2Q Government Deficit

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0685

1.0936

1.1022

1.1187

1.1273

1.1438

1.1689

GBPUSD

1.5146

1.5285

1.5339

1.5424

1.5478

1.5563

1.5702

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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