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Canadian Dollar Falls as Liberals Unseat PM Harper to Win Election

Canadian Dollar Falls as Liberals Unseat PM Harper to Win Election

2015-10-20 05:44:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Canadian Dollar Falls as Liberals Unseat PM Harper to Score Election Win
  • British Pound Looks to BOE Commentary for Rate Policy, Brexit Impact Clues
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Canadian Dollar faced selling pressure as early results showed Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party emerging triumphant in Canada’s general election, unseating incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The selloff likely reflected uncertainty ahead of a change of leadership. Weakness may not prove lasting however considering Mr Trudeau campaigned on a proposal to step up fiscal stimulus, which may take the pressure off the BOC to cut interest rates further.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as front-end yields jumped higher, hinting at ebbing RBNZ rate cut speculation. Priced-in expectations continue to envision at least one 25 basis point reduction in the 12 months ahead however. The Australian Dollar likewise advanced after minutes from this month’s RBA policy meeting showed the central bank expects growth to have picked up in the third quarter, which probably reduced the perceived likelihood of near-term stimulus expansion.

Looking ahead, a quiet data docket is likely to see investors focus on scheduled commentary from BOE Governor Mark Carney and Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey. Both are due to speak at a hearing before Parliament’s Treasury committee. The markets will be keen to parse the two policymakers’ remarks for clues about the probability of a near-term interest rate hike as well as a preview of a study on the impact of a would-be UK exit from the EU on BOE policy.

Mr Carney will use the Cairncross memorial lecture at St Peter’s College on Wednesday to present the so-called “Brexit” report’s findings in earnest. As for policy normalization, 90-day Sterling futures are pricing in the first move higher in the benchmark lending rate at some point in third quarter of next year.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

113.3

-

115.6

00:30

AUD

RBA October Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

05:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (SEP)

1.8%

-

2.7%

05:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (SEP)

4.9%

-

6.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (SEP)

3.27B

2.86B

Medium

06:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (SEP)

-

-2.4%

Low

06:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (SEP)

-

-4.0%

Low

06:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (SEP)

-0.2%

-0.5%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (SEP)

-1.8%

-1.7%

Medium

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (SEP F)

-

-19.1%

Low

07:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-

1.7%

Low

08:00

EUR

ECB Current Account SA (€) (AUG)

-

22.6B

Low

08:00

EUR

ECB Current Account NSA (€) (AUG)

-

33.8B

Low

9:00

GBP

BOE’s Bailey Speaks at Treasury Committee

-

-

Medium

10:00

GBP

BOE’s Carney Speaks at Treasury Committee

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1017

1.1101

1.1154

1.1185

1.1238

1.1269

1.1353

GBPUSD

1.5264

1.5319

1.5344

1.5374

1.5399

1.5429

1.5484

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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