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Pound, Euro and US Dollar Aim Higher on BOE, ECB and Fed Rhetoric

Pound, Euro and US Dollar Aim Higher on BOE, ECB and Fed Rhetoric

2015-10-08 05:35:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Pound, Euro May Rise as BOE, ECB Disappoint Dovish Market Expectations
  • September Fed Meeting Minutes May Boost US Dollar, Undercut Risk Appetite
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The British Pound may continue higher after scoring the largest two-day advance in three weeks as the Bank of England rate decision comes across the wires. Markets will be most concerned with the voting pattern on the rate-setting MPC committee and the tenor of rhetoric on display in the policy meeting Minutes document released alongside the announcement.

UK news-flow has also increasingly improved relative to consensus forecasts since September’s sit-down. Priced-in inflation expectations and 2015-16 GDP growth bets firmed over the same period. This means a dovish turn in policymakers’ posture is relatively unlikely even as recent financial market tumult has traders yearning additional accommodation.

Status-quo announcements from the RBA and the BOJ proved supportive for the Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen respectively this week. One might have expected more tepid responses considering both outcomes printed in line with baseline forecasts, meaning they ought to have been mostly priced in. This hints at an underlying expectation of expanded policy support among investors. Sterling may rise if the BOE does not validate such speculation.

The Euro may likewise rise following the publication of minutes from September’s ECB meeting. While the central bank has signaled a willingness to expand stimulus as needed, a swift rebound in inflation expectations since late August has probably defused the need for near term action. Language suggesting as much in the minutes document is likely to offer support for the single currency.

Finally, the spotlight will turn to minutes from last month’s Fed meeting. Traders will look for resolution of conflicting cues from September’s timid policy statement and subsequently hawkish commentary from nearly all voting members of the FOMC committee, including Chair Yellen. Comments suggesting the decision to withhold a rate hike was precautionary rather than substantive may boost the US Dollar against sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand alternatives. It may likewise fuel risk aversion, limiting the greenback’s potential against anti-risk currencies like the Euro and Yen.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (SEP)

1.7%

-

-0.5%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (SEP)

44.0%

55.0%

53.0%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (AUG)

-5.7%

2.3%

-3.6%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (AUG)

-3.5%

3.5%

2.8%

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (AUG)

1653.1B

1226.0B

1808.6B

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (AUG)

1590.1B

1291.1B

1321.8B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (¥) (AUG)

-326.1B

-395.1B

-108.0B

02:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (SEP)

4.53

-

4.72

04:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (SEP)

-18.62%

-

-13.06%

05:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Current (SEP)

47.5

49.0

49.3

05:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (SEP)

49.1

48.3

48.2

05:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (SEP)

74.7B

-

71.2B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (SEP)

3.2%

3.2%

Medium

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (SEP)

3.4%

3.3%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (AUG)

19.0B

25.0B

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (€) (AUG)

16.7B

23.4B

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (AUG)

-0.9%

2.5%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (AUG)

-0.6%

2.3%

Low

11:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target (£) (OCT)

375B

375B

High

11:00

GBP

Bank of England Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

High

11:30

EUR

ECB September Meeting Minutes

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1100

1.1172

1.1205

1.1244

1.1277

1.1316

1.1388

GBPUSD

1.5060

1.5177

1.5248

1.5294

1.5365

1.5411

1.5528

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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