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Euro, Yen May Rise if Fed Comments Rekindle 2015 Rate Hike Bets

Euro, Yen May Rise if Fed Comments Rekindle 2015 Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro, Yen May Rise if Fed Comments Rekindle 2015 Interest Rate Hike Bets
  • Aussie Dollar Gains as RBA Keeps Cash Rate at 2%, Maintains Neutral Bias
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to Fed-speak for new direction cues. Commentary from Kansas City Fed President Esther George and San Francisco Fed President John Williams is on the docket.

Ms George has tended to fall on the hawkish side of the spectrum but she does not vote on the rate-setting FOMC committee until next year. On the other hand, Mr Williams will take active part at the two policy decisions still on tap for 2015. Furthermore, he is something of a protégé for Janet Yellen, suggesting his views are closely aligned with that of the Fed Chair.

With that in mind, Williams’ remarks should take top billing as traders gauge whether his recently hawkish rhetoric has survived last week’s deeply disappointing US employment figures. If so, it will be curious to see if sentiment trends prove responsive.

Trading dynamics following the September’s payrolls figures hint that comments reiterating the call for a 2015 rate hike may weigh on risk appetite. Such a scenario seems likely to generate gains for funding currencies like the Euro and the Japanese Yen at the expense of higher-yielding alternatives including the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars.

The Aussie outperformed in overnight trade after the RBA kept its lending rate unchanged at 2 percent. While the outcome was widely expected, traders seemed to have been looking for a dovish lean in the accompanying commentary (indeed, we outlined the reasons for such a possibility in our weekly forecast). Governor Glenn Stevens offered no such clues however, falling back on now-familiar neutral language.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (3Q)

-14.0

-

5.0

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

110.0

-

110.6

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (AUG)

3.07%

-

3.28%

00:30

AUD

Trade Balance (AUG)

-3095M

-2400M

-2792M

03:30

AUD

RBA Cash Rate Target (OCT 06)

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) (AUG)

0.5%

-1.4%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (YoY) (AUG)

5.6%

-0.6%

Medium

07:00

GBP

Halifax House Prices (MoM) (SEP)

0.1%

2.7%

Medium

07:00

GBP

Halifax House Price (3M/Y) (SEP)

9.1%

9.0%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (SEP)

0.0%

-0.2%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (SEP)

-1.5%

-1.4%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP)

-

-0.6%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP)

-

-1.2%

Low

07:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (SEP)

-

50.3

Low

08:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (SEP)

-

9.6%

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (SEP)

-

54.7

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (SEP)

-

51.4

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (SEP)

-

49.5

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (SEP)

-

48.7

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0987

1.1102

1.1145

1.1217

1.1260

1.1332

1.1447

GBPUSD

1.4964

1.5070

1.5108

1.5176

1.5214

1.5282

1.5388

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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