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NFP prints at 339k vs estimates of 190k, ave earnings in line at 0.3% MoM

US Dollar Likely to Rise with Risk Appetite on Upbeat US Jobs Data

US Dollar Likely to Rise with Risk Appetite on Upbeat US Jobs Data

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Likely to be More Response to Upbeat Jobs Data vs. the Alternative
  • Risk Appetite May Firm on Strong US Payrolls Print, Hurting Euro and Yen
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Investors are likely to look past a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours to focus on September’s US Employment figures. An increase of 201,000 in non-farm payrolls is expected, while the jobless rate is seen holding unchanged at 5.1 percent. That would mark an improvement over the 173,000 gain in August, which may help bolster the case for the start of Fed stimulus withdrawal in 2015.

The implications of an upbeat outcome for the US Dollar seem relatively straight-forward. If traders walk away from the jobs report thinking a Fed rate hike seems more likely than previously, the currency will probably strengthen. Such a result may likewise help calm global slowdown fears and boost risk appetite, which ought to translate into outsized losses for funding currencies like the Euro and the Japanese Yen.

The markets’ response to a disappointing result is likely to be more timid than the alternative. Fed Funds futures suggest traders have already priced a 2015 rate increase out of the consensus forecast. That leaves relatively little room for a dovish adjustment to investors’ policy expectations. Risk appetite will probably sour however. In this scenario, the Euro and Yen are likely to outperform while the sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars face selling pressure.


Asia Session

23:30JPYJobless Rate (AUG)3.4%3.3%3.3%
23:30JPYJob-To-Applicant Ratio (AUG)
23:30JPYOverall Household Spending (YoY) (AUG)2.9%0.3%-0.2%
23:50JPYMonetary Base (YoY) (SEP)35.1%-33.3%
23:50JPYMonetary Base - End of Period (¥) (SEP) 338.4T-327.4T
00:00NZDANZ Commodity Price (SEP)5.5%--5.2%
01:00AUDHIA New Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)2.3%--1.8%
01:30AUDRetail Sales (MoM) (AUG)0.4%0.4%-0.1%

European Session

08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (SEP)57.557.3Medium
09:00EUREurozone PPI (MoM) (AUG)-0.6%-0.1%Low
09:00EUREurozone PPI (YoY) (AUG)-2.4%-2.1%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.