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US Dollar Aiming Higher as Fed Officials Talk Up Rate Hike Prospects

US Dollar Aiming Higher as Fed Officials Talk Up Rate Hike Prospects

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Advance as Fed Commentary Bolsters Interest Rate Hike Outlook
  • Upbeat US Data May Buoy Risk Appetite Alongside USD as Growth Fears Ease
  • See Economic Data Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar turned higher overnight following supportive comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The US central bank chief said a rate hike in 2015 is “likely appropriate”, adding that most on the FOMC share this view. Yellen chalked up below-target inflation to “transitory factors” and even warned that waiting too long to begin tightening may stoke excessive price growth and leverage.

The Euro and the New Zealand Dollar traded broadly lower. The moves did not seem linked to discrete catalysts, suggesting they represented corrective price action after the two currencies outperformed against their major counterparts in the preceding session.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to US news-flow. Fed-speak will probably remain in focus, with St. Louis and Kansas City Fed Presidents James Bullard and Esther George due to speak.

Both policymakers will be voting members on the rate-setting FOMC committee in 2016, putting them at the heart of the central bank’s on-coming tightening cycle. Mr Bullard already expressed a hawkish bias earlier in the week and Ms George has tended to lean in a similar direction, suggesting their commentary may offer further support to the greenback.

The final revision of second-quarter US GDP figures as well as September’s service-sector and composite Markit PMI readings are also on tap. Realized data outcomes have shown signs of cautious stabilization relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks. If this translates into results that underpin the case for a rate increase at the Fed’s October or December meetings, risk sentiment may firm alongside the US unit as global slowdown fears ease. Such a scenario may bode ill for the anti-risk Japanese Yen while boosting sentiment-geared alternatives in the commodity currency bloc.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (AUG)

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)

-0.1%

-0.1%

0.0%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)

0.8%

0.7%

0.6%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.1%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (AUG)

0.7%

0.5%

0.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (AUG)

5.3%

5.3%

Low

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3mo Avg) (AUG)

5.2%

5.1%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0968

1.1099

1.1164

1.1230

1.1295

1.1361

1.1492

GBPUSD

1.5068

1.5156

1.5199

1.5244

1.5287

1.5332

1.5420

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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