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Euro, Aussie and NZ Dollars May Fall as Yen Gains on Eurozone PMIs

Euro, Aussie and NZ Dollars May Fall as Yen Gains on Eurozone PMIs

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Decline if Soft Eurozone PMIs Inspire Bets on More ECB Stimulus
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars to Fall as Yen Gains if PMIs Amplify Global Slowdown Fears
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of September’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The regional composite measure is expected to tick lower, pointing to slowing manufacturing- and service-sector growth. Economic news-flow out of the currency bloc has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the month, suggesting analysts’ models may be over-estimating the vigor of the region’s recovery and opening the door for a downside surprise.

Such a result may amplify global slowdown fears and fuel continued risk aversion, boosting the Japanese Yen while punishing the sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars. The Euro may likewise come under pressure amid speculation that softening economic conditions could spur the ECB to expand monetary stimulus after the central bank’s President Mario Draghi opened the door for such a possibility at this month’s policy meeting.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

00:00

AUD

Conf. Board Leading Index (MoM) (JUL)

-

-

-0.2%

01:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (AUG)

-

-

0.1%

01:45

CNH

Caixin China PMI Mfg (SEP P)

-

47.5

47.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:45

EUR

French GDP (YoY) (2Q F)

1.0%

1.0%

Medium

06:45

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

07:00

EUR

French Markit Manufacturing PMI (SEP P)

48.6

48.3

Low

07:00

EUR

French Markit Services PMI (SEP P)

51.0

50.6

Low

07:00

EUR

French Markit Composite PMI (SEP P)

50.4

50.2

Low

07:30

EUR

German Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI (SEP P)

52.6

53.3

High

07:30

EUR

German Markit Services PMI (SEP P)

54.5

54.9

High

07:30

EUR

German Markit/BME Composite PMI (SEP P)

54.6

55.0

High

08:00

EUR

Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (SEP P)

52.0

52.3

High

08:00

EUR

Eurozone Markit Services PMI (SEP P)

54.2

54.4

High

08:00

EUR

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (SEP P)

54.0

54.3

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0959

1.1053

1.1087

1.1147

1.1181

1.1241

1.1335

GBPUSD

1.5036

1.5224

1.5295

1.5412

1.5483

1.5600

1.5788

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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