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Euro, Yen Eye Risk Trends as Pound Looks to BOE Comments for Direction

Euro, Yen Eye Risk Trends as Pound Looks to BOE Comments for Direction

2015-09-22 04:02:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro, Japanese Yen Look to Risk Sentiment Trends for New Direction Cues
  • British Pound at Risk if Comments from BOE’s Shafik Trim Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Financial markets settled into digestion mode overnight as a quiet economic data docket left traders without an immediate catalyst to fuel continued volatility. The US Dollar corrected cautiously lower having broadly outperformed in the prior session. The move higher followed hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who stressed that the US central bank remains on track to begin raising interest rates this year.

The absence of high-profile event risk may put sentiment trends at the forefront in the hours ahead. S&P 500 futures are ticking lower, hinting at a risk-averse bias. Follow-through along this trajectory may prove supportive for the Euro and the Japanese Yen while weighing on the likes of the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars.A similar setup was undermined by Mr Lockhart’s comments yesterday and he is in fact due to speak again today, but the markets have probably priced in his posture already and seem unlikely to significantly react further.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Nemat Shafik is also due to speak, with traders monitoring the remarks for clues informing rate hike timing speculation. The markets’ priced-in outlook has markedly deteriorated over the past two months, with investors seemingly doubting the likelihood of tightening at least before the fourth quarter of 2016.

The British Pound may edge lower as expectations deteriorate further if Ms Shafik’s comments echo those of fellow MPC member Jon Cunliffe, who struck a dovish tone yesterday. Cunliffe said he doesn’t see signs of building price pressures and warned that the external environment has weakened, calling for “limited and gradual” rate hikes when tightening does commence.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

114.5

-

105.3

01:30

AUD

House Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

4.7%

2.3%

1.6%

01:30

AUD

House Price Index (YoY) (2Q)

9.8%

8.0%

6.9%

02:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (AUG)

334.4

-

331.1

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

CHF

Trade Balance (AUG) (CHF)

2.75B

3.74B

Medium

06:00

CHF

Exports Real (MoM) (AUG)

-

-1.7%

Medium

06:00

CHF

Imports Real (MoM) (AUG)

-

-2.5%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (AUG)

-

-3.0B

Low

08:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (AUG)

-

-0.2B

Low

08:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (AUG) (£)

8.8B

-2.1B

Low

08:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (AUG) (£)

9.2B

-1.3B

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (SEP)

0.0

-1.0

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (SEP)

-5.0

-6.0

Low

14:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (SEP A)

-7.0

-6.9

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0936

1.1085

1.1137

1.1234

1.1286

1.1383

1.1532

GBPUSD

1.5345

1.5432

1.5470

1.5519

1.5557

1.5606

1.5693

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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