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Australian, NZ Dollars Drop as Risk Aversion Sweeps Financial Markets

Australian, NZ Dollars Drop as Risk Aversion Sweeps Financial Markets

2015-09-21 05:24:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Decline as Risk Aversion Sweeps Financial Markets
  • S&P 500 Futures Hint Sentiment Deterioration Likely to Continue Ahead
  • See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars declined as risk appetite floundered at the weekly trading open, with Asian bourses tracking lower after several Fed officials signaled that an interest rate hike was still in the cards for 2015.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said the decision to opt against a hike last week was a “close call” and reiterated that he expects to begin tightening “sometime later this year”. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – who doesn’t vote on the FOMC this year but will do so in 2016 – said he argued for a hike at last week’s sit-down, saying there is a “strong case” for normalizing policy. Richmond Fed President Jeff Lacker, who dissented against the decision to keep rates on hold, added that delaying rate hikes may have “adverse effects”.

Traders seemed to be unnerved by the prospect of reducing policy support for US growth against a backdrop of sluggish performance in the Eurozone and deteriorating conditions in China. The latter risk was made more acute after an MNI survey of Chinese business confidence showed the outlook among large companies’ executives weakened to the lowest since at least 2007. The anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen advanced as the markets’ dour mood spurred the unwinding of carry trades funded in the two currencies.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in the hours ahead, suggesting sentiment trends may remain the dominant catalyst for FX market price action through the remainder of the day. S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly lower, arguing for continued risk aversion ahead.

Global slowdown fears may be amplified if Augusts’ US Existing Home Sales figures undershoot expectations, extending a slump in realized US data outcomes relative to consensus forecasts since late August. Investors will likewise look to comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart – a current FOMC voter – for direction cues. Lockhart tends to lean on the dovish end of the spectrum, which ought to make his remarks all the more potent as a risk aversion driver if he too argues for a hike at one of the two policy meetings left in 2015.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (3Q)

106

-

113

22:45

NZD

Net Migration SA (AUG)

5470

-

5730

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (SEP)

0.9%

-

-0.8%

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (SEP)

6.4%

-

6.4%

01:45

CNH

MNI September Business Indicator

51.3

-

56.0

03:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (AUG)

1.1%

-

1.7%

03:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (AUG)

10.5%

-

9.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (AUG)

-0.3%

0.0%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (AUG)

-1.6%

-1.3%

Medium

07:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (AUG)

-

1.9%

Low

07:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (SEP 18)

-

464.3B

Low

07:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (SEP 18)

-

398.2B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0963

1.1153

1.1225

1.1343

1.1415

1.1533

1.1723

GBPUSD

1.5280

1.5425

1.5480

1.5570

1.5625

1.5715

1.5860

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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