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Pound May Fall if Hawkish Bank of England Minority Does Not Grow

Pound May Fall if Hawkish Bank of England Minority Does Not Grow

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Decline if Hawkish BOE MPC Minority Does Not Expand
  • Aussie Dollar Erases Intraday Losses as Jobs Data Trims RBA Rate Cut Bets
  • NZ Dollar Slumps on Dovish RBNZ Rhetoric, Yen Drops After 5yr Bond Sale

A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Recent comments from BOE Governor Mark Carney and MPC member Kristin Forbes struck a hawkish tone. Carney was dismissive of the impact of recent volatility on the Bank’s rate-hike calculus while Forbes cautioned against the adverse effects of keeping borrowing costs low for too long. If such rhetoric does not translate into a larger hawkish minority on the policy-setting committee, with at least one more vote for tightening on top of Ian McCafferty’s sole dissent last month, the British Pound may fall. A hawkish tally of 3 or more votes stands to send the UK unit higher however.

The Australian Dollar erased intraday losses sustained as risk aversion in overnight trade weighed on the sentiment-linked currency following the release of upbeat jobs data. Augusts’ Employment report showed the economy added a net 17.4K jobs last month, topping estimates calling for a 5k increase. The Aussie rose alongside front-end bond yields, suggesting the rosy figures weighed against RBA interest rate cut speculation.

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled following the outcome of the RBNZ monetary policy meeting. While the announcement of another 25 basis point interest rate cut was widely expected and likely priced in before the results of the sit-down crossed the wires, the dovish tone of the accompanying rhetoric weighed heavily on the exchange rate. The central bank did not mince words, saying “some further easing [of the benchmark lending rate] seems likely.”

The Japanese Yen fell despite the markets risk-off mood, a disposition that might have been expected to boost the typically safety-linked currency. The move lower followed the outcome of a five-year bond sale where yields fell to 0.067 percent, the lowest since January. The Canadian Dollar advanced amid the aftermath of the BOC rate decision earlier in the day. Governor Stephen Poloz and company noted recent weakness in commodity prices and China-linked market instability but struck a notably sanguine tone, suggesting the central bank is in no hurry to offer further stimulus.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Official Cash Rate (SEP 10)

2.75%

2.75%

3.0%

22:45

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (AUG)

0.5%

0.3%

0.4%

22:45

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

-

1.0%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (AUG)

53.0%

46.0%

44.0%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (JUL)

-3.6%

3.0%

-7.9%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (JUL)

2.8%

10.3%

16.6%

23:50

JPY

PPI (MoM) (AUG)

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

PPI (YoY) (AUG)

-3.6%

-3.3%

-3.1%

00:01

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (AUG)

41.7%

-

37.8%

01:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (SEP)

3.2%

-

3.7%

01:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (AUG)

2.0%

1.8%

1.6%

01:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (AUG)

-5.9%

-5.6%

-5.4%

01:30

AUD

Employment Change (AUG)

17.4K

5.0K

39.2K

01:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (AUG)

6.2%

6.2%

6.3%

01:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (AUG)

11.5K

-

13.1K

01:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (AUG)

5.9K

-

26.1K

01:30

AUD

Participation Rate (AUG)

65.0%

65.0%

65.1%

02:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (AUG)

4.72

-

4.89

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

GBP

Halifax House Prices (MoM) (AUG)

0.5%

-0.6%

Medium

07:00

GBP

Halifax House Price (3Mths/Year) (AUG)

7.9%

7.9%

Medium

11:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target (SEP)

375B

375B

High

11:00

GBP

Bank of England Bank Rate

0.5%

0.5%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1017

1.1101

1.1154

1.1185

1.1238

1.1269

1.1353

GBPUSD

1.5264

1.5319

1.5344

1.5374

1.5399

1.5429

1.5484

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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