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US Dollar Drops, Euro and Yen Press Higher Amid Market Turmoil

US Dollar Drops, Euro and Yen Press Higher Amid Market Turmoil

2015-09-01 07:15:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as the 0.3 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a slide in front-end Treasury bond yields, pointing to eroding Fed rate hike expectations as the likely catalyst. For its part, the move in rates seemed to reflect safe-haven demand for US debt amid continued risk aversion, but may have likewise reflected perceptions of falling probability for tightening at this month’s FOMC meeting given a backdrop of market angst. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional stock index fell 1.6 percent, extending the turmoil started at the weekly trading open.

The Euro and the Japanese Yen continued to outperform as the slump in sentiment continued to fuel the unwinding of carry trades funded in the two low-yielding currencies. The Canadian Dollar corrected lower having soared alongside crude oil prices in the preceding session. That move followed the release of the OPEC monthly bulletin, where the cartel said it was willing to work with other global suppliers on a “fair” oil price. The markets appeared to interpret the statement as hinting that OPEC was willing to reduce crude output, though no specifics actually emerged.

Looking ahead, the spotlight turns to Augusts’ UK Manufacturing PMI figures. The pace of factory-sector activity growth is expected to accelerate for a second consecutive month, hitting the strongest level since March. UK economic news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may rekindle BOE interest rate hike speculation, particularly after seemingly hawkish comments from Mark Carney over the weekend, and boost the British Pound.

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 index futures are trading down nearly 2 percent in late Asian market hours, hinting that the risk-off mood is likely to carry forward as European and North American bourses come online. Investors will look to the US ISM Manufacturing report to continue the evolution of Fed policy expectations. Economists envision a slight down-tick but a recent string of data outcomes beating forecasts may pave the way for an unexpectedly firm print that inspires fears of on-coming tightening, compounding the markets’ dour mood.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)

1.3%

-2.5%

1.2%

23:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index

113.3

-

113

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (AUG)

51.7

-

50.4

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (YoY) (2Q)

5.6%

8.8%

7.3%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending Ex Software (2Q)

6.6%

10.9%

8.1%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (2Q)

23.8%

2.2%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (2Q)

1.1%

-

-0.5%

00:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

-

2.8%

00:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (AUG)

11.3%

-

10.1%

01:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

49.7

49.7

50

01:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (AUG)

53.4

-

53.9

01:30

AUD

BoP Current Account Balance (2Q)

-19.0B

-15.9B

-13.5B

01:30

AUD

Net Exports of GDP (2Q)

-0.6

-0.3

0.5

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL)

4.2%

3.0%

-5.2%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL)

13.4%

10.1%

13.5%

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (AUG F)

51.7

-

51.9

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Mfg (AUG F)

47.3

47.1

47.1

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Composite (AUG)

48.8

-

50.2

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Services (AUG)

51.5

-

53.8

04:30

AUD

RBA Cash Rate Target

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)

2.3%

-

-1.3%

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (AUG)

79.7

-

80.6

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (AUG)

-20.9%

-

-19.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:30

CHF

PMI Mfg (AUG)

49.8

48.7

Medium

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (AUG)

55.0

55.3

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (AUG F)

48.6

48.6

Low

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (AUG)

-4K

9K

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate (AUG)

6.4%

6.4%

Medium

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (AUG F)

53.2

53.2

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (AUG F)

52.4

52.4

Medium

08:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P)

12.7%

12.7%

Low

08:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate Quarterly (2Q)

12.5%

12.4%

Low

08:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (JUL)

1.2B

1.2B

Low

08:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL)

2.7B

2.6B

Low

08:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (JUL)

68.1K

66.6K

Medium

08:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL)

-

-0.5%

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL)

-

-0.3%

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL)

-

3.8%

Low

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg (AUG)

52.0

51.9

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (JUL)

11.1%

11.1%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Italian GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Italian GDP (YoY) (2Q F)

0.5%

0.5%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1009

1.1110

1.1161

1.1211

1.1262

1.1312

1.1413

GBPUSD

1.5178

1.5276

1.5310

1.5374

1.5408

1.5472

1.557

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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