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Euro, Pound Eyeing CPI and GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Outlook

Euro, Pound Eyeing CPI and GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Outlook

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Down Overnight, Swiss Franc Higher on Upbeat 2Q GDP Figures
  • Euro, Pound Eye German CPI and UK GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having rallied against most of the majors in the preceding 24 hours. The Dow Jones FXCM USD Index – a measure of the greenback’s average value against its top counterparts – gained 0.2 percent yesterday to hit a two-week high. The Swiss Franc outperformed after second-quarter GDP figures topped expectations, showing output unexpectedly grew 0.2 percent. Economists were penciling in a 0.1 percent contraction ahead of the release.

Looking ahead, revised UK GDP figures and a preliminary look at Augusts’ German CPI report headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The former is expected to confirm that output grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter. A cautious upward drift in UK economic news-flow relative to consensus forecasts may open the door for an upside surprise however.

Such a result could boost speculation that BOE Governor Mark Carney will strike a hawkish tone at this weekend’s central bankers’ summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This would be consistent with Carney’s dismissive rhetoric about recent turmoil in China earlier this month. Needless to say, such an outcome would bode well for the British Pound.

Meanwhile, Germany’s headline inflation rate is seen edging lower to 0.1 percent, the lowest in six months. This too is likely to be judged through the prism of what it could mean for ECB rhetoric to be unveiled at the Jackson Hole Symposium over the weekend, with Vitor Constancio set to speak.

The ECB Vice President and his Executive Board colleague Peter Praet both hinted the central bank could expand its QE effort if needed in separate speeches this week. A weak CPI print may fuel speculation of just such a development to be telegraphed in commentary over the weekend, weighing on the Euro.


Asia Session

CNHLeading Index (JUL)--98.71
23:05GBPGfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)744
23:30JPYJobless Rate (JUL)3.3%3.4%3.4%
23:30JPYJob-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL)
23:30JPYOverall Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)-0.2%0.5%-2.0%
23:30JPYNatl CPI (YoY) (JUL)0.2%0.2%0.4%
23:30JPYNatl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)0.0%-0.2%0.1%
23:30JPYNatl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)0.6%0.6%0.6%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI (YoY) (AUG)0.1%0.1%0.1%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)0.4%0.3%0.3%
23:50JPYRetail Trade (YoY) (JUL)1.6%1.1%1.0%
23:50JPYRetail Sales (MoM) (JUL)1.2%0.6%-0.6%
23:50JPYLarge Retailers' Sales (JUL)2.1%1.2%-0.3%
01:30CNHIndustrial Profits (YoY) (JUL)-2.9%--0.3%

European Session

05:45CHFGDP (QoQ) (2Q)0.2% (A)-0.2%Medium
05:45CHFGDP (YoY) (2Q)1.2% (A)1.1%Medium
08:30GBPGDP (QoQ) (2Q P)0.7%0.7%Medium
08:30GBPGDP (YoY) (2Q P)2.6%2.6%Medium
08:30GBPPrivate Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P)0.7%0.9%Low
08:30GBPGovernment Spending (QoQ) (2Q P)0.0%0.9%Low
08:30GBPGross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (2Q P)0.5%2.0%Low
08:30GBPExports (QoQ) (2Q P)2.0%0.4%Low
08:30GBPImports (QoQ) (2Q P)0.6%2.3%Low
08:30GBPTotal Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q P)1.5%2.0%Low
08:30GBPTotal Business Investment (YoY) (2Q P)3.8%5.7%Low
08:30GBPIndex of Services (MoM) (JUN)0.4%0.3%Low
08:30GBPIndex of Services (3M/3M) (JUN)0.7%0.4%Low
08:30GBPLloyds Business Barometer (AUG)-50Low
09:00EUREurozone Economic Confidence (AUG)103.8104Low
09:00EUREurozone Business Climate Indicator (AUG)0.340.39Low
09:00EUREurozone Industrial Confidence (AUG)-3.2-2.9Low
09:00EUREurozone Services Confidence (AUG)8.88.9Low
09:00EUREurozone Consumer Confidence (AUG F)--6.8Low
12:00EURGerman CPI (MoM) (AUG P)-0.1%0.2%Medium
12:00EURGerman CPI (YoY) (AUG P)0.1%0.2%Medium
12:00EURGerman CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG P)-0.1%0.3%Medium
12:00EURGerman CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG P)0.1%0.1%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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