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Euro, Pound Eyeing CPI and GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Outlook

Euro, Pound Eyeing CPI and GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Down Overnight, Swiss Franc Higher on Upbeat 2Q GDP Figures
  • Euro, Pound Eye German CPI and UK GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having rallied against most of the majors in the preceding 24 hours. The Dow Jones FXCM USD Index – a measure of the greenback’s average value against its top counterparts – gained 0.2 percent yesterday to hit a two-week high. The Swiss Franc outperformed after second-quarter GDP figures topped expectations, showing output unexpectedly grew 0.2 percent. Economists were penciling in a 0.1 percent contraction ahead of the release.

Looking ahead, revised UK GDP figures and a preliminary look at Augusts’ German CPI report headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The former is expected to confirm that output grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter. A cautious upward drift in UK economic news-flow relative to consensus forecasts may open the door for an upside surprise however.

Such a result could boost speculation that BOE Governor Mark Carney will strike a hawkish tone at this weekend’s central bankers’ summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This would be consistent with Carney’s dismissive rhetoric about recent turmoil in China earlier this month. Needless to say, such an outcome would bode well for the British Pound.

Meanwhile, Germany’s headline inflation rate is seen edging lower to 0.1 percent, the lowest in six months. This too is likely to be judged through the prism of what it could mean for ECB rhetoric to be unveiled at the Jackson Hole Symposium over the weekend, with Vitor Constancio set to speak.

The ECB Vice President and his Executive Board colleague Peter Praet both hinted the central bank could expand its QE effort if needed in separate speeches this week. A weak CPI print may fuel speculation of just such a development to be telegraphed in commentary over the weekend, weighing on the Euro.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

CNH

Leading Index (JUL)

-

-

98.71

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)

7

4

4

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (JUL)

3.3%

3.4%

3.4%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL)

1.21

1.19

1.19

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)

-0.2%

0.5%

-2.0%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (JUL)

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)

0.0%

-0.2%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (AUG)

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL)

1.6%

1.1%

1.0%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

1.2%

0.6%

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (JUL)

2.1%

1.2%

-0.3%

01:30

CNH

Industrial Profits (YoY) (JUL)

-2.9%

-

-0.3%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

GDP (QoQ) (2Q)

0.2% (A)

-0.2%

Medium

05:45

CHF

GDP (YoY) (2Q)

1.2% (A)

1.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

08:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (2Q P)

2.6%

2.6%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Private Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.7%

0.9%

Low

08:30

GBP

Government Spending (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.0%

0.9%

Low

08:30

GBP

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.5%

2.0%

Low

08:30

GBP

Exports (QoQ) (2Q P)

2.0%

0.4%

Low

08:30

GBP

Imports (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.6%

2.3%

Low

08:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q P)

1.5%

2.0%

Low

08:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q P)

3.8%

5.7%

Low

08:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (JUN)

0.4%

0.3%

Low

08:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (JUN)

0.7%

0.4%

Low

08:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG)

-

50

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (AUG)

103.8

104

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (AUG)

0.34

0.39

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (AUG)

-3.2

-2.9

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (AUG)

8.8

8.9

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (AUG F)

-

-6.8

Low

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (AUG P)

-0.1%

0.2%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (AUG P)

0.1%

0.2%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG P)

-0.1%

0.3%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG P)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0949

1.1110

1.1178

1.1271

1.1339

1.1432

1.1593

GBPUSD

1.5149

1.5288

1.5345

1.5427

1.5484

1.5566

1.5705

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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