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US Dollar May Rise as Sentiment Sours Anew on Revised 2Q GDP Data

US Dollar May Rise as Sentiment Sours Anew on Revised 2Q GDP Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Expectations Continue to Rebuild
  • 2Q US GDP Revision May Boost US Dollar, Trigger Renewed Risk Aversion
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The currency briefly popped higher after the second-quarter capex report revealed an upgrade to the 2015-16 outlook, but sellers swiftly retook the initiative. Prices declined alongside Australian front-end bond yields, hinting the move reflected continued deterioration in RBA policy bets. Traders are pricing in at least one 25bps reduction in the cash rate over the coming 12 months.

A lackluster economic calendar in European trading hours will see traders looking ahead to a revised set of second-quarter US GDP figures. The annualized growth rate is expected to be revised higher to 3.2 percent from the previously estimated 2.3 percent print. A supportive outcome may rekindle speculation that the Federal Reserve may yet raise interest rates this year, boosting the US Dollar and rekindling risk aversion amid fears that tightening will hurt global growth.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
01:30AUDPrivate Capital Expenditure (2Q)-4.0%-2.5%-4.7%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXP/ACTPREVIMPACT
06:00EURGerman Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL)-0.7% (A)-0.5%Low
06:00EURGerman Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL)-1.7% (A)-1.4%Low
06:00GBPNationwide House Px (MoM) (AUG)0.3% (A)0.4%Medium
06:00GBPNationwide House Px (YoY) (AUG)3.2% (A)3.5%Medium
07:15CHFIndustrial Output WDA (YoY) (2Q)--0.5%Low
08:00EUREurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL)4.9%5.0%Low
08:00EUREurozone M3 Money Supply 3M Avg (JUL)5.0%5.1%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.08511.11201.12171.13891.14861.16581.1927
GBPUSD1.50111.52781.53711.55451.56381.58121.6079

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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