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US Dollar Rebounds After Selloff, Looks for Fuel in Retail Sales Data

US Dollar Rebounds After Selloff, Looks for Fuel in Retail Sales Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • September Fed Rate Hike Bets May Swell if US Retail Sales Tops Forecasts
  • US Dollar Outperformed in Asia, Correcting After Yesterday’s Sharp Selloff
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see markets looking ahead to July’s US Retail Sales report for direction cues. Receipts are expected to rise 0.6 percent, marking an improvement over the prior month’s 0.3 percent decline.

On the whole, US data outcomes have increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May. That opens the door for an upside surprise, which may fuel speculation about a September interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and boost the US Dollar.

The greenback outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appeared to be corrective after yesterday’s broad-based decline produced the largest single-day drop in two months.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
22:30NZDBusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (JUL)53.5-55.1
22:45NZDFood Prices (MoM) (JUL)0.6%-0.5%
23:01GBPRICS House Price Balance (JUL)44.0%42.0%40.0%
23:01NZDREINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL)37.8%-29.2%
23:50JPYMachine Orders (MoM) (JUN)-7.9%-4.8%0.6%
23:50JPYMachine Orders (YoY) (JUN)16.6%17.6%19.3%
01:00AUDConsumer Inflation Expectation (AUG)3.7%-3.4%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXP/ACTPREVIMPACT
06:00EURGerman CPI (MoM) (JUL F)0.2% (A)0.2%Medium
06:00EURGerman CPI (YoY) (JUL F)0.2% (A)0.2%Medium
06:00EURGerman CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL F)0.3% (A)0.3%Medium
06:00EURGerman CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL F)0.1% (A)0.1%Medium
07:15CHFProducer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUL)-0.3% (A)-0.1%Low
07:15CHFProducer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUL)-6.4% (A)-6.1%Low
11:30EURECB July Meeting Minutes--Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.07551.09441.10511.11331.12401.13221.1511
GBPUSD1.53531.54781.55451.56031.56701.57281.5853

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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