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US Dollar Rebounds After Selloff, Looks for Fuel in Retail Sales Data

US Dollar Rebounds After Selloff, Looks for Fuel in Retail Sales Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • September Fed Rate Hike Bets May Swell if US Retail Sales Tops Forecasts
  • US Dollar Outperformed in Asia, Correcting After Yesterday’s Sharp Selloff
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see markets looking ahead to July’s US Retail Sales report for direction cues. Receipts are expected to rise 0.6 percent, marking an improvement over the prior month’s 0.3 percent decline.

On the whole, US data outcomes have increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May. That opens the door for an upside surprise, which may fuel speculation about a September interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and boost the US Dollar.

The greenback outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appeared to be corrective after yesterday’s broad-based decline produced the largest single-day drop in two months.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

53.5

-

55.1

22:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (JUL)

0.6%

-

0.5%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (JUL)

44.0%

42.0%

40.0%

23:01

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL)

37.8%

-

29.2%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (JUN)

-7.9%

-4.8%

0.6%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (JUN)

16.6%

17.6%

19.3%

01:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (AUG)

3.7%

-

3.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (JUL F)

0.2% (A)

0.2%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (JUL F)

0.2% (A)

0.2%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL F)

0.3% (A)

0.3%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL F)

0.1% (A)

0.1%

Medium

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUL)

-0.3% (A)

-0.1%

Low

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUL)

-6.4% (A)

-6.1%

Low

11:30

EUR

ECB July Meeting Minutes

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0755

1.0944

1.1051

1.1133

1.1240

1.1322

1.1511

GBPUSD

1.5353

1.5478

1.5545

1.5603

1.5670

1.5728

1.5853

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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