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  • 🇳🇱 Inflation Rate YoY (APR) Actual: 1.9% Expected: 1.7% Previous: 1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
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Pound May Overlook PMIs as BOE Looms, US Dollar May Rise on Data

Pound May Overlook PMIs as BOE Looms, US Dollar May Rise on Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound to Overlook Services PMI as BOE Rate Decision Looms Ahead
  • US Dollar May Rise as ISM, ADP Reports Boost Bets on September Fed Hike
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

July’s UK Services PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the index to edge narrowly lower to 58.0 from 58.5 recorded in the prior month, reflecting a slight deceleration in the pace of sector activity growth. The outcome may not inspire follow-through from the British Pound however as traders withhold directional conviction until after this week’s much-anticipated Bank of England policy announcement passes.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to US economic data. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite gauge is expected to print at 56.2 in July, a hair higher than June’s 56.0 result. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment gauge of private-sector hiring is forecast to reveal a slowdown in job creation, with payrolls rising by 215,000 in July compared with a 237,000 increase in the prior month. US economic data has increasingly outperformed relative to analysts’ bets since mid-May, opening the door for upside surprises. Such outcomes may help boost the perceived probability of a September Fed rate hike in, pushing the US Dollar higher.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade as prices corrected following yesterday’s outsized rally in the wake of the RBA monetary policy announcement. Falling equity prices may have compounded downside pressure. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index declined as much as 1 percent, pointing to souring risk appetite that could have further hurt the sentiment-linked currency.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate (2Q)

5.9%

5.9%

5.8%

22:45

NZD

Participation Rate (2Q)

69.3%

69.6%

69.5%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q)

0.3%

0.5%

0.6%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (YoY) (2Q)

3.0%

3.4%

3.2%

22:45

NZD

Pvt Wages Inc Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.5%

0.3%

22:45

NZD

Pvt Wages Ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.5%

0.3%

22:45

NZD

Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q)

1.2%

0.5%

0.2%

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

-1.4%

-

-1.3%

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Services Index (JUL)

54.1

-

51.2

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Services (JUL)

51.2

-

51.8

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (JUL)

51.5

-

51.5

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Composite (JUL)

50.2

-

50.6

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Services (JUL)

53.8

-

51.8

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (JUL)

-0.4%

0.1%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (JUL)

-1.0%

-1.0%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL)

-

0.2%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL)

-

-0.6%

Medium

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (JUL)

53.0

53.4

Low

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (JUL)

53.8

54

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (JUL F)

52.0

52.0

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (JUL F)

51.5

51.5

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (JUL F)

53.7

53.7

Medium

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUL F)

53.4

53.4

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JUL F)

53.8

53.8

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUL F)

53.7

53.7

Medium

08:30

GBP

Official Reserves Changes (JUL)

-

$1M

Low

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (JUL)

58.0

58.5

High

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (JUL)

56.9

57.4

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

-0.2%

0.2%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

2.0%

2.4%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0698

1.0807

1.0844

1.0916

1.0953

1.1025

1.1134

GBPUSD

1.5433

1.5509

1.5536

1.5585

1.5612

1.5661

1.5737

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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