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Pound May Overlook PMIs as BOE Looms, US Dollar May Rise on Data

Pound May Overlook PMIs as BOE Looms, US Dollar May Rise on Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound to Overlook Services PMI as BOE Rate Decision Looms Ahead
  • US Dollar May Rise as ISM, ADP Reports Boost Bets on September Fed Hike
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

July’s UK Services PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the index to edge narrowly lower to 58.0 from 58.5 recorded in the prior month, reflecting a slight deceleration in the pace of sector activity growth. The outcome may not inspire follow-through from the British Pound however as traders withhold directional conviction until after this week’s much-anticipated Bank of England policy announcement passes.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to US economic data. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite gauge is expected to print at 56.2 in July, a hair higher than June’s 56.0 result. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment gauge of private-sector hiring is forecast to reveal a slowdown in job creation, with payrolls rising by 215,000 in July compared with a 237,000 increase in the prior month. US economic data has increasingly outperformed relative to analysts’ bets since mid-May, opening the door for upside surprises. Such outcomes may help boost the perceived probability of a September Fed rate hike in, pushing the US Dollar higher.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade as prices corrected following yesterday’s outsized rally in the wake of the RBA monetary policy announcement. Falling equity prices may have compounded downside pressure. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index declined as much as 1 percent, pointing to souring risk appetite that could have further hurt the sentiment-linked currency.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
22:45NZDUnemployment Rate (2Q)5.9%5.9%5.8%
22:45NZDParticipation Rate (2Q)69.3%69.6%69.5%
22:45NZDEmployment Change (QoQ) (2Q)0.3%0.5%0.6%
22:45NZDEmployment Change (YoY) (2Q)3.0%3.4%3.2%
22:45NZDPvt Wages Inc Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)0.5%0.5%0.3%
22:45NZDPvt Wages Ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)0.5%0.5%0.3%
22:45NZDAverage Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q)1.2%0.5%0.2%
23:01GBPBRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL)-1.4%--1.3%
23:30AUDAiG Perf of Services Index (JUL)54.1-51.2
01:35JPYNikkei Japan PMI Services (JUL)51.2-51.8
01:35JPYNikkei Japan PMI Composite (JUL)51.5-51.5
01:45CNYCaixin China PMI Composite (JUL)50.2-50.6
01:45CNYCaixin China PMI Services (JUL)53.8-51.8

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
07:15CHFCPI (MoM) (JUL)-0.4%0.1%Medium
07:15CHFCPI (YoY) (JUL)-1.0%-1.0%Medium
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL)-0.2%Medium
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL)--0.6%Medium
07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (JUL)53.053.4Low
07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (JUL)53.854Low
07:50EURMarkit France Services PMI (JUL F)52.052.0Low
07:50EURMarkit France Composite PMI (JUL F)51.551.5Low
07:55EURMarkit Germany Services PMI (JUL F)53.753.7Medium
07:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUL F)53.453.4Medium
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Services PMI (JUL F)53.853.8Medium
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUL F)53.753.7Medium
08:30GBPOfficial Reserves Changes (JUL)-$1MLow
08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Services PMI (JUL)58.058.5High
08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (JUL)56.957.4High
09:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)-0.2%0.2%Medium
09:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)2.0%2.4%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.06981.08071.08441.09161.09531.10251.1134
GBPUSD1.54331.55091.55361.55851.56121.56611.5737

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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