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Pound Response to PMI Data Likely Limited as BOE Looms Ahead

Pound Response to PMI Data Likely Limited as BOE Looms Ahead

2015-08-03 03:34:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound Unlikely to Find Lasting Follow-Through in July PMI Figures
  • US Dollar Looks to PCE, ISM Data to Inform Fed Interest Rate Hike Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

July’s UK Manufacturing PMI report headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the index to edge narrowly higher to 51.5 from 51.4 recorded in the prior month, reflecting a slight acceleration in the pace of factory-sector activity growth. The outcome may not inspire follow-through from the British Pound however as traders withhold directional conviction until after this week’s much-anticipated Bank of England policy announcement passes.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to US economic data. The ISM Manufacturing gauge is expected to print at 53.5 in July, unchanged from the prior month. Meanwhile, the year-on-year Core PCE inflation gauge – the Fed’s preferred price growth measure – is seen holding at 1.2 percent for a second consecutive month.

The latter may prove to command particular attention as traders consider the implications of persistently sluggish inflation for the prospect of a September Fed rate hike. Indeed, the US Dollar dipped alongside front-end bond yields on Friday as disappointing second-quarter wage inflation data crossed the wires. The Employment Cost index gained just 0.2 percent, the least in at least 18 years.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (JUL)

50.4

-

44.2

00:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px MoM (JUL)

2.8%

-

2.1%

00:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation MoM (JUL)

0.2%

-

0.1%

00:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation YoY (JUL)

1.6%

-

1.5%

01:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales MoM (JUN)

0.5%

-

-2.3%

01:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements MoM (JUL)

-0.4%

-

1.2%

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Mfg PMI (JUL F)

51.2

-

51.4

01:45

CNY

Caixin Mfg PMI (JUL F)

47.8

48.3

48.2

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales YoY (JUL)

-

5.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (JUL 31)

-

461.89B

Low

07:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (JUL 31)

-

397.63B

Low

07:30

CHF

PMI Mfg (JUL)

50.5

50.0

Medium

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (JUL)

53.9

54.1

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (JUL F)

49.6

49.6

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (JUL F)

51.5

51.5

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (JUL F)

52.2

52.2

Medium

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (JUL)

51.5

51.4

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0620

1.0813

1.0899

1.1006

1.1092

1.1199

1.1392

GBPUSD

1.5361

1.5489

1.5556

1.5617

1.5684

1.5745

1.5873

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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