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US Dollar May Rise as 2Q GDP Data Boosts Fed Rate Speculation

US Dollar May Rise as 2Q GDP Data Boosts Fed Rate Speculation

2015-07-30 06:57:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in German CPI, Unemployment Data
  • US Dollar May Rise as Upbeat 2Q GDP Report Amplifies Fed Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of July’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected print at 0.3 percent, unchanged from the prior month. German Unemployment figures are likewise on tap, with the ranks of the jobless expected to shrink by a further 5k.

On balance, neither release is likely to inspire meaningful follow-through from the Euro considering their limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. Indeed, the central bank appears effectively on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60 billion/month QE effort through September 2016.

Later in the day, the spotlight will shift to second-quarter US GDP report. An increase of 2.5 percent is expected, marking a swift rebound following the 0.2 percent contraction in the first three months of the year. US economic data has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result stands to reinforce bets on an on-coming Fed interest rate hike following yesterday’s hawkish shift in FOMC rhetoric, boosting the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)

-4.1%

-

0.0%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN P)

0.8%

0.3%

-2.1%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN P)

2.0%

1.3%

-3.9%

01:30

AUD

Import price index (QoQ) (2Q)

1.4%

1.5%

-0.2%

01:30

AUD

Export price index (QoQ) (2Q)

-4.4%

-4.0%

-0.8%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN)

-8.2%

-1.0%

2.3%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN)

8.6%

19.5%

18.3%

03:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUN)

-5.3%

-

-16.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (JUL)

90.4

89.7

Low

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (JUL)

-5.0K

-1.0K

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (JUL)

6.4%

6.4%

Medium

08:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

-

-

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (JUL)

103.2

103.5

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (JUL)

0.19

0.14

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (JUL)

-3.4

-3.4

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (JUL)

8.0

7.9

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (JUL F)

-7.1

-7.1

Low

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (JUL P)

0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (JUL P)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL P)

0.3%

-0.2%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL P)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0778

1.0895

1.0939

1.1012

1.1056

1.1129

1.1246

GBPUSD

1.5423

1.5525

1.5563

1.5627

1.5665

1.5729

1.5831

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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