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US Dollar Backtracks as FOMC Rate Decision Looms Ahead

US Dollar Backtracks as FOMC Rate Decision Looms Ahead

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Drops Amid Pre-Positioning Before FOMC Policy Announcement
  • Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Direction Cues in German IFO Survey Data
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade as front-end yields declined, hinting weakness may reflect pre-positioning ahead of this week’s much-anticipated FOMC policy meeting. Traders may be paring back exposure in favor of a more neutral posture until after event risk passes having rebuilt bets on a 2015 rate hike over the past two weeks (as reflected in the December Fed Funds futures contract).

July’s German IFO survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline Business Climate gauge is expected to edge narrowly lower, marking the third consecutive month of deterioration. The release seems unlikely to have a significant impact on the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy, which appears to be on auto-pilot for the time being.

Later in the day, US Durable Goods orders data enters the spotlight. An increase of 3.2 percent is being penciled in for June, which would amount to the strongest uptick in three months. US economic news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks, opening the door for an upside surprise. Follow-through may prove constrained however, with traders unwilling to firmly commit to a directional bias until after the FOMC announcement is behind them.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (JUN)

0.4%

0.6%

0.6%

01:30

CNY

Industrial Profits (YoY) (JUN)

-0.3%

-

0.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

-0.5% (A)

-0.2%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

-1.4% (A)

-0.8%

Low

07:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (JUL 24)

-

460.86B

Low

07:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (JUL 24)

-

396.75B

Low

08:00

EUR

German IFO Business Climate (JUL)

107.2

107.4

Medium

08:00

EUR

German IFO Current Assessment (JUL)

112.9

113.1

Medium

08:00

EUR

German IFO Expectations (JUL)

101.8

102.0

Medium

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (JUN)

5.1%

5.0%

Medium

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 3-month average (JUN)

5.1%

5.0%

Medium

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (JUL)

-6

-7

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUL)

-8

-7

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Business Optimism (JUL)

1

3

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0826

1.0897

1.0941

1.0968

1.1012

1.1039

1.1110

GBPUSD

1.5382

1.5441

1.5475

1.5500

1.5534

1.5559

1.5618

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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