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Euro, Yen Volatility Ahead as EU Officials Meet on Greece Crisis

Euro, Yen Volatility Ahead as EU Officials Meet on Greece Crisis

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Greece remains in focus as the aftermath of the weekend’s referendum rejecting the EU-proposed debt deal terms continues to play out. Eurozone finance ministers are set to hold an emergency meeting to discuss how to proceed from here. This will set the stage for a Eurozone leaders’ summit thereafter.

EU officials’ willingness to entertain further negations is in question. To resume talks now may be seen as rewarding Athens’ intransigence. Policymakers may not want to set such a precedent as Spain’s Syriza-like Podemos party prepares for elections just around the corner.

Meanwhile, with most Greek debt now held by non-private entities, default contagion risk appears diminished. As such, Brussels may opt to leave Greece in the wind, with any follow-on economic hardship to act as a cautionary tale for would-be imitators.

With this in mind, traders will keep a watchful eye on the rhetoric emerging out of today’s meetings. A conciliatory tone may raise hopes for progress and offer a boost to the Euro as well as lift market-wide risk appetite, weighing on the safety-linked Japanese Yen. Signs of reluctance to re-engage with Athens are stand to yield the opposite results.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
22:00NZDNZIER Business Opinion Survey (2Q)5-23
23:30AUDANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf111.0-116.3
23:30AUDAiG Perf of Construction Index (JUN)46.4-47.8
23:50JPYOfficial Reserve Assets ($) (JUN)1242.9B-1245.8B
04:30AUDRBA Cash Rate Target2.00%2.00%2.00%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
05:45CHFUnemployment Rate (JUN)3.1%3.2%Medium
05:45CHFUnemployment Rate SA (JUN)3.3%3.3%Medium
06:00EURGerman Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY)0.1%0.9%Medium
06:00EURGerman Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY)2.6%1.4%Medium
06:30AUDForeign Reserves (A$) (JUN)-73.2BLow
07:00CHFForeign Currency Reserves (Fr) (JUN)515.7B517.5BLow
08:30GBPIndustrial Production (MoM) (MAY)-0.2%0.4%Medium
08:30GBPIndustrial Production (YoY) (MAY)1.6%1.2%Medium
08:30GBPManufacturing Production (MoM) (MAY)0.1%-0.4%Medium
08:30GBPManufacturing Production (YoY) (MAY)1.8%0.2%Medium
11:00EUREurozone FinMin Emergency Meeting on Greece--High
16:00EUREurozone Leaders Hold Summit on Greece--High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.07891.09151.09851.10411.11111.11671.1293
GBPUSD1.53571.54701.55381.55831.56511.56961.5809

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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