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Euro, Yen Volatility Ahead as EU Officials Meet on Greece Crisis

Euro, Yen Volatility Ahead as EU Officials Meet on Greece Crisis

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Greece remains in focus as the aftermath of the weekend’s referendum rejecting the EU-proposed debt deal terms continues to play out. Eurozone finance ministers are set to hold an emergency meeting to discuss how to proceed from here. This will set the stage for a Eurozone leaders’ summit thereafter.

EU officials’ willingness to entertain further negations is in question. To resume talks now may be seen as rewarding Athens’ intransigence. Policymakers may not want to set such a precedent as Spain’s Syriza-like Podemos party prepares for elections just around the corner.

Meanwhile, with most Greek debt now held by non-private entities, default contagion risk appears diminished. As such, Brussels may opt to leave Greece in the wind, with any follow-on economic hardship to act as a cautionary tale for would-be imitators.

With this in mind, traders will keep a watchful eye on the rhetoric emerging out of today’s meetings. A conciliatory tone may raise hopes for progress and offer a boost to the Euro as well as lift market-wide risk appetite, weighing on the safety-linked Japanese Yen. Signs of reluctance to re-engage with Athens are stand to yield the opposite results.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (2Q)

5

-

23

23:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

111.0

-

116.3

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction Index (JUN)

46.4

-

47.8

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (JUN)

1242.9B

-

1245.8B

04:30

AUD

RBA Cash Rate Target

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (JUN)

3.1%

3.2%

Medium

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (JUN)

3.3%

3.3%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

0.9%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY)

2.6%

1.4%

Medium

06:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (JUN)

-

73.2B

Low

07:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (Fr) (JUN)

515.7B

517.5B

Low

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY)

-0.2%

0.4%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY)

1.6%

1.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

-0.4%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAY)

1.8%

0.2%

Medium

11:00

EUR

Eurozone FinMin Emergency Meeting on Greece

-

-

High

16:00

EUR

Eurozone Leaders Hold Summit on Greece

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0789

1.0915

1.0985

1.1041

1.1111

1.1167

1.1293

GBPUSD

1.5357

1.5470

1.5538

1.5583

1.5651

1.5696

1.5809

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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