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Greece Hopes to Restart Debt Deal Negotiations. Will the EU Oblige?

Greece Hopes to Restart Debt Deal Negotiations. Will the EU Oblige?

2015-07-06 09:07:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro Declines, Yen Gains as Greek Referendum Rejects EU Debt Deal Terms
  • EU May Opt Against Restarting Negotiations, Opening the Door to “Grexit”
  • Follow All the Latest Greece Crisis News-Flow via the Real Time News Feed

The Euro underperformed in overnight trade after Greece voted against a deal swapping reforms for bailout funding offered by the country’s creditors at a referendum Sunday. The final tally showed 61.3 percent of respondents opted to say “no”, supporting the position of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, while 38.7 percent responded “yes” to the EU-backed plan.

While the outcome does not necessarily equate to a Greek exit from the Eurozone, it does seem to make such a scenario more likely. This fueled risk aversion across the financial markets. The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars came under pressureearly in the day (though those losses have since unwound) while the safety-geared Japanese Yen is traded broadly higher.

Looking ahead, the tame economic calendar on offer in European hours seems unlikely to overshadow investors’ focus on Greece-related matters as the markets wait for the EU’s response to the weekend’s news-flow. Greek Finance Minister Yannis Varoufakis – long a thorn in the side of the creditor camp – has resigned in what seems like a gesture meant to encourage new negotiations now that Mr Tsipras feels his mandate is renewed.

For their part, EU officials are preparing for a summit on the matter tomorrow. In the interim, news-wires indicate that European Comission President Jean-Claude Juncker is set to hold a conference call with European Council President Donald Tusk as well as Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem and ECB President Mario Draghi today.

From here, the EU’s willingness to entertain Greek overtures is critical. To resume negations now may be seen as rewarding Athens’ intransigence. This is a precedent that the EU may not want to set as Spain’s Syriza-like Podemos party prepares for elections just around the corner. Meanwhile, with most Greek debt now held by non-private entities, default contagion risk appears diminished. Brussels may opt to leave Greece in the wind, with any follow-on economic hardship a cautionary tale for any would-be imitators.

On balance, little is likely to be clarified in the near term as EU policymakers weigh their options. S&P 500 index futures are pointing sharply lower however, warning that risk aversion is likely to remain a dominant theme in the hours ahead.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

00:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUN)

0.1%

-

0.3%

00:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUN)

1.5%

-

1.4%

01:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN)

1.3%

-

0.1%

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (MAY P)

106.2

106.2

106.4

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (MAY P)

109.2

109.1

111.0

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) (MAY)

-0.2% (A)

2.2%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (YoY) (MAY)

4.7% (A)

1.3%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (JUN)

0.1% (A)

0.2%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (JUN)

-1.0% (A)

-1.2%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUN)

0.2% (A)

0.0%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUN)

-0.6% (A)

-0.9%

Medium

07:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (JUN)

50.7 (A)

50.8

Low

08:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUN)

12.9% (A)

2.4%

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (JUN)

54.0 (A)

55.8

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (JUN)

50.4 (A)

51.4

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (JUN)

48.9 (A)

48.7

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (JUN)

46.7 (A)

48.3

Low

08:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUL)

18.5 (A)

17.1

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0993

1.1046

1.1080

1.1099

1.1133

1.1152

1.1205

GBPUSD

1.5423

1.5507

1.5539

1.5591

1.5623

1.5675

1.5759

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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