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British Pound May Fall as PMI Data Undercuts BOE Rate Hike Bets

British Pound May Fall as PMI Data Undercuts BOE Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Fall as June PMIs Undercut BOE Tightening Speculation
  • Australian Dollar Drops as Soft Retail Sales Data Inspires RBA Rate Cut Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The final set of June’s UK PMI data figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The composite index is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth rebounding after sliding to a five-month low in May. UK news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may push back BOE rate hike expectations, weighing on the British Pound.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.9 percent on average against its top counterparts. The decline followed a disappointing Retail Sales report. Receipts grew 0.3 percent in May, falling short of forecasts calling for a 0.5 percent increase. April’s reading was also revised downward to reveal a 0.1 percent contraction. The Aussie’s drop tracked a slide in front-end bond yields, suggesting soft news-flow inspired RBA rate cut speculation.


Asia Session

23:30AUDAiG Perf of Services Index (JUN)51.2-49.6
01:30AUDRetail Sales (MoM) (MAY)0.3%0.5%-0.1%
01:35JPYNikkei Japan PMI Services (JUN)51.8-51.5
01:35JPYNikkei Japan PMI Composite (JUN)51.5-51.6
01:45CNYHSBC China Composite PMI (JUN)50.6-51.2
01:45CNYHSBC China Services PMI (JUN)51.8-53.5

European Session

07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (JUN)52.352.5Low
07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (JUN)53.353.7Low
07:50EURMarkit France Services PMI (JUN F)54.154.1Low
07:50EURMarkit France Composite PMI (JUN F)53.453.4Low
07:55EURMarkit Germany Services PMI (JUN F)54.254.2Medium
07:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUN F)54.054.0Medium
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Services PMI (JUN F)54.454.4Medium
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUN F)54.154.1Medium
08:30GBPOfficial Reserves Changes (JUN)--$324MLow
08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Services PMI (JUN)57.556.5High
08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (JUN)56.755.8High
09:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)0.1%0.7%Medium
09:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY)2.3%2.2%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.