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Greece Fiasco on Hold Pending Referendum, Pound May Fall on PMI

Greece Fiasco on Hold Pending Referendum, Pound May Fall on PMI

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Greece Crisis in a Holding Pattern Ahead of Weekend Referendum Outcome
  • Pound May Decline as Soft PMI Data Undercuts BOE Interest Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

All eyes remain on Greece after the country missed its scheduled €1.6 billion repayment to the IMF. A statement from the fund said the country is now “in arrears”, which means it is unable to receive further funding until the issue is resolved. Athens requested an extension of the deadline, which the IMF said would be considered by its executive board “in due course”.

Presumably, this means the declaration of a formal default will wait for now. This will allow Christine Lagarde and company to avoid forcing the matter until after the outcome of a referendum on the creditors’ proposals scheduled for the weekend. It may likewise leave room for the ECB to continue offering ELA support to Greek banks, which the central bank probably prefers to do until the democratic process on the ground has a chance to play out.

Eurozone finance ministers are due to hold a conference call on Athens’ request for an extension of its now-expired bailout program as well as debt relief and a two-year loan from the currency bloc’s rescue fund. A meaningful shift in the landscape seems unlikely to emerge from the meeting however. Indeed, German Chancellor Angela Markel said officials will “negotiate about absolutely nothing” with the Greek government until the results of the referendum are on-hand. Still, the situation is highly fluid and significant headline risk remains.

On the economic data front, June’s UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the docket. The index is expected to edge higher to 52.5, putting the pace of factory-sector activity growth at a three-month high. UK news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may push back BOE rate hike expectations, weighing on the British Pound.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (JUN)

44.2

-

52.3

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (MAY)

2.91%

-

2.63%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Index (2Q)

15

12

12

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (2Q)

16

14

10

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index (2Q)

23

22

19

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (2Q)

21

23

17

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large All Industry Capex (2Q)

9.3%

5.3%

-1.2%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Index (2Q)

0

1

1

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (2Q)

0

1

0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (2Q)

4

5

3

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (2Q)

1

3

-1

00:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (JUN)

2.1%

-

-0.9%

01:00

CNY

Mfg PMI (JUN)

50.2

50.4

50.2

01:00

CNY

Non-Mfg PMI (JUN)

53.8

-

53.2

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (MAY)

2.4%

1.2%

-5.2%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (MAY)

17.6%

14.4%

18.0%

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (JUN F)

50.1

-

49.9

01:45

CNY

HSBC China Mfg PMI (JUN F)

49.4

49.6

49.6

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN)

5.4%

-

1.4%

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (JUN)

80.2

-

77.9

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (JUN)

-17.9%

-

-20.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

07:30

CHF

PMI Mfg (JUN)

50.0 (A)

49.4

Low

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (JUN)

54.1 (A)

54.8

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (JUN F)

50.5

50.5

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (JUN F)

51.9

51.9

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (JUN F)

52.5

52.5

Medium

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (JUN)

52.5

52.0

High

15:30

EUR

Eurogroup Teleconference on Greece

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0904

1.1036

1.1091

1.1168

1.1223

1.1300

1.1432

GBPUSD

1.5561

1.5644

1.5678

1.5727

1.5761

1.5810

1.5893

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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