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Euro Awaits News on Greece Deal Progress as EU Leaders Meet

Euro Awaits News on Greece Deal Progress as EU Leaders Meet

2015-06-26 04:20:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Drops, Yen Outperforms on Risk Aversion in Asian Trade
  • Kiwi Dollar Seesaws on RBNZ Rhetoric, Upbeat Trade Balance Report
  • Euro Waiting on Greece-Linked News-Flow from EU Leaders’ Summit

The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar traded lower while the safety-geared Japanese Yen outperformed as risk aversion swept markets in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.9 percent, following negative cues from Wall Street. Newswires attributed the dour mood to the absence of a funding deal between Greece and its creditors at an emergency meeting of Eurozone finance ministers.

The New Zealand Dollar saw sharp see-saw volatility. The currency fell after the RBNZ reiterated that the exchange rate remains unjustifiably high in its Statement of Intent. This seemed to fuel fears that policymakers may intervene to beat down the Kiwi once again. The bank also pledged to explore “macro-prudential policy options” for reigning in the real estate market, hinting house price inflation won’t hold back on-coming interest rate cuts. An upbeat set of Trade Balance figures served to trim losses however.

Another quiet day on the European data front is likely to keep Greece-related news-flow in the spotlight. Leaders of EU member states are set to continue a two-day summit in Brussels and traders will keenly monitor rhetoric coming out of the event for signs of a breakthrough or a final collapse of negotiations without further room to maneuver.

Markets fear that failure to overcome the impasse may lead to a Greek default and push the country out of the Eurozone, triggering as-yet unknown consequences for the currency bloc and the world economy at large. Hopes were running high early in the week after Athens submitted an updated set of proposed reforms meant to unlock a tranche of bailout funding. Traction has failed to materialize thus far however.

Signs of progressahead of another emergency Eurogroup meeting over the weekend may lift the Euro amid ebbing uncertainty risk. Sentiment may likewise firm, boosting higher-yielding currencies (notably in the commodity FX complex) while weighing on the Yen. Follow-though might be limited however considering the markets’ priced-in outlook seems to favor an eventual agreement. Continued deadlock may not fuel volatility however, with investors unlikely to give up hope until June’s €1.6 billion IMF repayment comes due and the bailout program expires at month-end.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (MAY)

350M

-100M

183M

22:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (MAY)

4.36B

4.30B

4.13B

22:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (MAY)

4.01B

4.30B

3.95B

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (MAY)

-2570M

-2835M

-2656M

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (MAY)

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAY)

1.19

1.17

1.17

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (MAY)

4.8%

3.6%

-1.3%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (MAY)

0.5%

0.4%

0.6%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)

0.1%

0.0%

0.3%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUN)

0.3%

0.5%

0.5%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.6%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

-0.4%

-0.6%

Low

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (MAY)

5.4%

5.3%

Low

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply 3M Avg (MAY)

5.1%

4.7%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1048

1.1122

1.1163

1.1196

1.1237

1.1270

1.1344

GBPUSD

1.5545

1.5638

1.5692

1.5731

1.5785

1.5824

1.5917

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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