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Euro May Hold Up Even if EU FinMins Fail on Greek Funding Deal

Euro May Hold Up Even if EU FinMins Fail on Greek Funding Deal

2015-06-19 02:26:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro Selling to be Limited Even if EU FinMins Fail on Greek Funding Deal
  • Australian Dollar Down Alongside Bond Yields as RBA Rate Cut Bets Build
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Greece remains to the spotlight in European trading hours as Eurozone finance ministers continue to meet in Luxembourg. This time around, they will be joined by their counterparts of EU countries outside of the single currency bloc.

The markets appear fairly sanguine for now. Indeed, while yesterday’s meeting ended in deadlock between Athens and its creditors once again, Greek bond yields edged lower and the 1-year CDS spread narrowed to suggest worries about an adverse outcome eased.

A bit under two weeks remains until the expiry of the current bailout program and the scheduled repayment of €1.6 billion to the IMF. That seems to represent a sort of line in the sand for investors. In the interim, markets appear determined to hold out hope that an 11th hour compromise is possible.

With that in mind, a status-quo outcome to today’s sit-down seems unlikely to meaningfully punish the Euro. Needless to say, a clear-cut breakthrough paving the way for an accord or an official breakdown without room to maneuver further would probably trigger volatility on the up- or downside, respectively.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade. The move tracked a drop in front-end bond yields, pointing to eroding RBA policy expectations as a possible catalyst for selling pressure. The markets now price in at least one rate cut over the coming 12 months.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

-

-1.3%

-

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

-

¥80T

¥80T

-

JPY

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

-

-

-

01:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUN)

119.9

-

123.9

01:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUN)

-3.2%

-

-3.8%

01:45

CNY

MNI Business Indicator (JUN)

53.5

-

49.7

03:00

JPY

BOJ Policy Statement/Kuroda Press Conference

-

-

04:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (APR)

0.2%

-1.3%

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (APR F)

-

107.2

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (APR F)

-

111.1

05:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-

13.7%

05:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-

17.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.1%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (MAY)

-1.1%

-1.5%

Medium

07:00

EUR

EU Finance Ministers Hold Meeting

-

-

High

08:00

EUR

ECB Current Account SA () (APR)

-

18.6B

Low

08:00

EUR

ECB Current Account NSA () (APR)

-

24.9B

Low

08:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) () (MAY)

-

-4.0B

Low

08:30

GBP

Central Government NCR () (MAY)

-

-1.2B

Low

08:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing () (MAY)

10.0B

6.0B

Low

08:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups () (MAY)

10.3B

6.8B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1165

1.1270

1.1315

1.1375

1.1420

1.1480

1.1585

GBPUSD

1.5624

1.5748

1.5814

1.5872

1.5938

1.5996

1.6120

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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