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British Pound Looks to UK CPI Data to Drive BOE Rate Hike Bets

British Pound Looks to UK CPI Data to Drive BOE Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

May’s UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 1 percent, rebounding from the 14-year low recorded in the prior month and snapping a three-month deceleration streak. Leading surveys appear to support the case for an improvement.

UK news-flow has tended to disappoint relative to consensus forecasts over recent months however, warning of the plausible probability of a downside surprise. Such an outcome may underscore the disparity between the BOE’s apparent nod toward a mid-2016 rate hike telegraphed in the central bank’s latest Inflation Report and the markets’ priced-in bets for tightening by the first quarter. The British Pound may face selling pressure in such a scenario, although follow-through may be limited as traders wait for the release of minutes from June’s MPC meeting before showing directional commitment.

The Australian Dollar declined after the publication of minutes from June’s RBA meeting. Governor Glenn Stevens and company reiterated that the stance of monetary policy should be accommodative, adding that further Aussie depreciation is both likely and necessary. Markets price in no further interest rate cuts over the coming 12 months however, hinting that downside follow-through may prove lacking in the near term.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (JUN 14)

114.5

-

112.1

01:30

AUD

RBA June Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

01:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (MAY)

-1.3%

-

-1.5%

01:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY)

0.8%

-

2.6%

04:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-

-

-7.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

SECO June 2015 Economic Forecasts

-

-

Medium

06:00

EUR

Eurozone EU27 New Car Registrations (MAY)

-

6.9%

Low

06:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (MAY F)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (MAY F)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY F)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY F)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

08:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.2%

High

08:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (MAY)

0.1%

-0.1%

High

08:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (MAY)

1.0%

0.8%

High

08:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

0.4%

Medium

08:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (MAY)

1.1%

0.9%

Medium

08:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (MAY)

1.1%

0.9%

Medium

08:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (MoM) (MAY)

0.6%

0.4%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (YoY) (MAY)

-11.3%

-11.7%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (YoY) (MAY)

-1.6%

-1.7%

Medium

08:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (MAY)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

08:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (MAY)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

ONS House Price (YoY) (APR)

-

9.6%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (1Q)

-

0.7%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (YoY) (1Q)

-

0.9%

Medium

09:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey Current Situation (JUN)

63.0

65.7

Medium

09:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey Expectations (JUN)

37.3

41.9

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations (JUN)

-

61.2

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1045

1.1150

1.1217

1.1255

1.1322

1.1360

1.1465

GBPUSD

1.5316

1.5442

1.5521

1.5568

1.5647

1.5694

1.582

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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